The Los Angeles Sparks and Seattle Storm wrap a home-and-home set in the Emerald City on Tuesday night, with the WNBA odds setting the home side as a slim underdog.
Los Angeles beat Seattle 92-85 inside Crypto.com Arena on Saturday, pushing with the closing spread of L.A. -7.
The Sparks are off to a 3-2 SU (3-1-1 ATS) start under new head coach Curt Miller, with those two defeats coming at the hands of reigning champ Las Vegas while an illness ripped through the locker room two weeks ago.
Seattle, pegged to finish at the bottom of the Western Conference in 2023, is 0-4 SU entering Tuesday but hasn’t rolled over for any opponent, going 3-0-1 ATS to start the schedule against some of the tougher teams in the league.
I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this West Coast war and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Sparks vs. Storm on June 6.
Sparks vs Storm best odds
Sparks vs Storm picks and predictions
Sparks head coach Curt Miller had high praise for Storm standout Jewell Loyd after she dropped 37 points on his team last weekend, including eight makes from 3-point land.
While Miller said the collective effort of his team overcame Loyd’s scoring eruption, the defensive-minded coach knows his team can ill afford Loyd to get hot like that again. Miller told the media his defense has to keep Loyd off balance and will throw different schemes and matchups at her tonight.
With L.A. coming after Seattle’s top player, the Storm need the supporting staff to step up. One complementing talent emerging as a real threat is Ezi Magbegor.
She finished with 14 points on 4-of-8 shooting along with making all four free throws in L.A. last weekend and has posted efforts for 14, 12, and 15 points in her last three games.
The 6-foot-4 forward has a scoring prop of 12.5 (Over -120) for tonight’s return meeting with the Sparks, while her player projections are forecasting a high of 16-plus points from the fourth-year Aussie. My number is bit shorter at 14.25 points from Magbegor.
If L.A. gets up on Loyd and plays above the 3-point arc, it will force the ball out of her hands while also creating more space underneath for Magbegor and the Storm frontcourt. Given the pace of play and poor defensive showings from both sides, this total is on the higher end at 166.5 points.
A high-scoring game script call for plenty of points and Magbegor continuing to be the second-best scoring option for Seattle.
My best bet: Ezi Magbegor Over 12.5 points (-120 at bet365)
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Sparks vs Storm spread and Over/Under analysis
The opening spread hit the board Monday afternoon, with Los Angeles giving as many as 3.5 points on the road. That early line saw action on Seattle drag the opener to L.A. -2.5 and the rest of the industry opened at that number later in the day.
As of Tuesday morning, this spread can be had between Los Angeles -2.5 and Seattle +3 depending on where you bet. Covers Consensus is showing 64% of picks laying the points with the visitor.
It's tough to get a grasp on just how good or bad the Sparks are through five games. They’re still working in Miller, who made Connecticut a perennial contender in his time with the Sun.
Los Angeles has come up short against the Aces twice playing the defending champs in the midst of a locker room illness that left the team shorthanded two weeks ago. The Sparks’ three victories have come against Seattle and Phoenix (twice), who have a combined 1-7 SU mark on the season so far.
My WNBA ratings are a bit tempered on Los Angeles, with it placed No. 8 in the 12-team league, and produced a projected point spread of L.A. -2.5 for this trip to Seattle. The Storm are the bottom team in my rating but I’m respecting how close they’ve battled against some of the top-tier teams in the WNBA, like Vegas, New York, and Dallas.
This spread is making a move toward the Sparks with the team expected to get Azura Stevens in action tonight. The 6-foot-6 forward has been sidelined with a back injury to start the year but is active and expected to debut against Seattle. Stevens is a big body inside that averaged 10.6 points and almost four rebounds for Chicago last season.
As for the Over/Under total, this number hit the board at 167 points and has slimmed to as low as 166 as of Tuesday morning.
Miller is a defense-first coach but that style has had a tough time sticking so far for the Sparks, who sit No. 9 in advance rating at 104.8 on that end of the floor. The team enters Tuesday’s game at 4-1 Over/Under on the season.
Los Angeles allowed 85 points on 46% shooting to Seattle last weekend, but it was the Storm’s turnover troubles that permitted L.A. to break away for the win. Seattle coughed the ball up 18 times, which led to 17 easy points off turnovers for L.A.
The Storm are leaning heavily on star Loyd to keep them in contests, with the shooting guard averaging just under 29 points per game to start 2023. She went for 37 points on 13-of-26 shooting against the Sparks, including making 8 of 12 shots from beyond the arc last Saturday.
Seattle is dead last in defensive rating and No. 3 in offensive pace, which has produced a perfect 4-0 run for the Over in their four contests so far.
This current total, which is bouncing between 166 and 166.5 points, is three points higher than the closing number of 163.5 points from Saturday’s matchup between these teams. That 92-85 final score blew that total out of the water.
Sparks vs Storm betting trend to know
WNBA home underdogs are 10-2 ATS to start the 2023 season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Storm.
Sparks vs Storm game info
|Location:||Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA|
|Date:||Tuesday, June 6, 2023|
|Tip-off:||10:00 p.m. ET|
Sparks vs Storm key injuries
Sparks: Azura Stevens F (Probable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.