Los Angeles Sparks vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks, and Odds: L.A. Has Bad Vegas Vacation

The Aces proved they're clearly better than the Sparks and won't start as slow today. Our WNBA picks see value in a spread that hasn't adjusted for their homecourt and renewed focus.

Last Updated: May 27, 2023 2:17 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
A'ja Wilson WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Two days after they met on the West Coast, the Los Angeles Sparks and Las Vegas Aces move their quick back-to-back to Sin City, with the Aces remaining massive favorites despite Thursday night being uncomfortably close for the defending champions. Can the Sparks again bother the title favorites?

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Sparks vs the Aces on May 27, with tip set for 9:00 p.m. ET.

Sparks vs Aces best odds

Sparks vs Aces picks and predictions

The Sparks put the Aces on their heels early on Thursday, taking a 10-point lead in the first quarter and holding it into halftime. The defending champions never flinched, though, and their second-half effort made it clear which of these is the superior team. Las Vegas won the second half by 19 points, taking the lead with two minutes left in the third quarter and never considering relinquishing it.

Those WNBA odds jumped from opening with the Aces favored by eight to closing with them favored by 15.5. Obviously, Los Angeles covered with ease, in fact covering wire-to-wire, but tonight’s line opened with Las Vegas favored by 14.0 and rising to only -15.5, the same as Thursday closed, showing how little respect was put upon that ATS victory for the Sparks.

And understandably so.

In fact, this spread not shooting past -15.5 is dumbfounding.

If the Aces were favored by that on the road, it would make sense to see it tick upward at home. Something as high as -18 or -19.5 would have been appropriate if accounting for home-court advantage alone.

Then factor in how dominant Las Vegas’s second half was on Thursday: It won the third quarter by 14 points. While Los Angeles got out to an impressive start, the Aces were able to return to form without much worry.

That second-half showing explained why Thursday’s spread was so lofty, far more so than the first-half Vegas worries ran counter to it. Logically, this number should have gotten bigger because of the home-court advantage and how impressive the Aces were after their slow start. Instead, it did not move.

That’s a mistake by the books, one we will gladly take advantage of.

My best bet: Aces -15.5 (-110 at Caesars)

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Sparks vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

Do not look at the lofty spread and worry it is unattainable. Four games in the WNBA season have already finished with margins of victory bigger than this, including a 41-point win by the Aces. Last year, Vegas won by at least 16 points in nine different games, more than a third of its outright wins.

The Aces then added two such wins in the playoffs.

Las Vegas is more than capable of blowing out an opponent, and the second half on Thursday showed Los Angeles is more than capable of getting blown out.

This total has lodged itself at 171.5, a bit upward from Thursday’s 170.0, a move that emphasizes the Aces’ second-half explosion, scoring 58 points after the break. If the total acknowledged that breakthrough, it is further confounding why the spread did not.

Across the league, offenses are beginning to find their rhythm. Unders cashed in six of the first nine games and seven of the first 11, but Overs are 3-1 since then, not including this afternoon’s Sun-Liberty game.

Those are all small sample sizes, but it suggests bookmakers are posting better totals already.

Sparks vs Aces betting trend to know

The Aces were 5-6 ATS as double-digit favorites last year, but they were 3-1 ATS in such moments in the final nine games of the season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Aces.

Sparks vs Aces game info

Location: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Date: Saturday, May 27, 2023
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET

Sparks vs Aces key injuries

Sparks: Jordin Canada G (Questionable), Nneka Ogwumike F (Questionable), Azura Stevens F (Out).
Aces: Riquna Williams G (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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