The Las Vegas Aces avenged their WNBA Commissioners Cup loss on Thursday and now will square off against the Los Angeles Sparks in a bid to extend their regular season winning streak to a league-leading five games.
The Sparks' season has been utterly undone by injuries, and yet they’re still in the playoff hunt. While a win against the Aces is unlikely, they’ll take any chance they have to establish winning habits in a season defined by so many disruptions.
Our WNBA picks and predictions for Sparks vs. Aces on Saturday, August 19 expect A’ja Wilson to be unleashed after two tough games against the New York Liberty.
Sparks vs Aces best odds
Sparks vs Aces picks and predictions
A’ja Wilson is again the clubhouse leader for WNBA MVP, so it was almost a novelty to see her tested to the degree she was in the most recent series of games against the New York Liberty. A’ja scored just nine points in two games against New York before breaking through for 21 against the Liberty on Thursday night.
That Wilson was able to put together that solid of a performance against the likes of Breanna Stewart, perhaps the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year, bodes well for her to have a breakout performance against a more limited defensive team in the Los Angeles Sparks.
Not only did A’ja have to contend with Stewie, but she also had to go against one of the league’s other best defenders even when Stewart hit the bench. A’ja was largely frustrated in her play against Jonquel Jones, which is more a testament to how good Jones is on the inside than a demerit to the reigning MVP.
Going against those two is like playing basketball in a phone booth while wearing a straitjacket. But having Hoodini’d their way to a win on Thursday, A’ja is about to be rewarded with a much more favorable matchup on Saturday.
Nneka Ogwumike is no defensive slouch, but she’s also not as good as Stewart or Jones individually, and nothing on the Sparks can compare to having to play them both simultaneously.
Just as Wilson broke out for 28 points in just 24 minutes against the Dallas Wings following her nine-point performance against New York on August 6, I expect her to come out stronger having now played the Liberty twice in a row leading into Saturday’s game.
Playing against top opponents always brings the best out of the league’s best players, and I fully expect A’ja to thrive in the relative space and freedom her opponents will allow her compared to her recent stint of games against New York.
My best bet: A'ja Wilson Over 21.5 points (+100 at FanDuel)
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Sparks vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis
The Las Vegas Aces opened as 16.5-point favorites for Saturday’s contest, and early money has pushed that line to 17.5 at most sportsbooks.
The Sparks' injury woes have seen them face increasingly lowered expectations, and they had a 7-14-2 ATS record in late July. Remarkably, since that point, they have rattled off seven straight ATS victories to rally to an even 14-14-2 record. That kind of resilience is admirable and shows that Curt Miller is having an impact even if the hand he’s been dealt on a nightly basis has been shoddy at best.
Still, the Aces are another beast. When these teams last played on July 12, the Aces easily eclipsed the 12.5 line to ultimately win by 19 points. The Aces have also been dominant ATS at home, going 6-1 over their last seven games in Las Vegas.
The total for Saturday’s tilt has come in at 169.5, modest compared to the Aces' recent contests but still a significant number nonetheless.
The Aces have played in three straight Unders, but these were against sky-high numbers (178, 175.5, and 176.5). The Sparks' presence has brought those numbers down to earth, because not only are they a solid to good defense, but they have been one of the most miserable offenses in the W this season.
Can the Sparks defend at a high level against the Aces' small-ball, shooting-focused groups? And can they squeeze enough out of Ogwumike and Jordin Canada to approach a respectable half-court offense? I have significantly more faith in the Sparks’ defense than their offense, relative to how the Aces will pressure them. At 169.5 I’d lean toward taking the Under.
Sparks vs Aces betting trend to know
Sparks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Aces.
Sparks vs Aces game info
| Location: | Michelob Ultra Arena, Paradise, NV |
| Date: | Saturday, August 19, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Sparks vs Aces key injuries
Sparks: Lexie Brown G (Out), Chiney Ogwumike F (Out), Nia Clouden G (Out).
Aces: Lou Samuelson F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
