The Chicago Sky have not had the greatest week. No matter how you want to describe the recent Caitlin Clark discourse, the Sky have not looked good this week.
For a young team with a first-year head coach, that could spell disaster against the veteran New York Liberty in our WNBA picks tonight. Trusting one of the best teams in the league to cover a single-digit spread will lead our Liberty vs Sky predictions before it tips on Tuesday, June 4, at 8:00 ET.
Liberty vs Sky predictions
My best bet
Liberty -8.5 (-108 at BetRivers)
My analysis
The New York Liberty have not yet looked like the team that should have won the WNBA Finals last fall. Going 2-7 against the spread so far this season underscores that concern, and bookmakers have started to worry.
Look specifically at tonight's contest against the Chicago Sky and how it compares to their matchup on May 23. That game was held in Brooklyn, and New York reached tip as a 16.5-point favorite, only to lose 90-81.
Flipping home courts tonight should adjust that spread by five or six points, at the most. Yet here we are with most books at -8.5. Why the additional 2-3 points?
It is certainly not because Chicago has been wildly impressive. The Sky have gone 4-3 ATS this season and 3-4 outright, effectively playing to expectations.
The additional 2- or 3-point move in the spread ties to disappointment in the Liberty. That is a fair criticism, though this sluggish start to the season should not have been entirely unexpected. This veteran roster is coming off a collapse in last year's WNBA finals, and May basketball doesn't exactly light competitive fires.
Yet, the Liberty keep winning. They are 7-2 this season, hardly hurt in the standings by this lackluster start, that loss to the Sky aside.
A chance at revenge should incite some motivation, and it comes when Chicago is most distracted. A young roster led by a first-year head coach has talked about everything but on-court basketball this week.
Frankly, that would have been a reason to inflate this spread rather than let New York pessimism deflate it.
Liberty vs Sky same-game parlay (SGP)
Liberty -9
Jonquel Jones Over 8.5 rebounds
Angel Reese Over 8.5 rebounds
A viable MVP candidate, Jonquel Jones had her worst game of this season against the Sky, grabbing just four rebounds and posting a -20 in the plus/minus column. In every other game this season, she has grabbed at least six rebounds, averaging 9.25 in those eight games.
If anyone on the New York roster should have taken that loss personally, it was Jones, so some redemption will make sense tonight.
However, as a whole, the Liberty lack pieces to keep Angel Reese off the glass. The rookie has played well to start her career, mostly because her rebounding is such a reliable skill.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Liberty vs Sky odds
Liberty vs Sky live odds
Get the latest Liberty vs Sky WNBA odds for tonight.
Liberty vs Sky opening odds
- Spread: New York -6.5 (-105) | Chicago +6.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: New York -300 | Chicago +240
- Over/Under: Over 161.5 (-110) | Under 161.5 (-110)
Liberty vs Sky spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened even lower than its current deflated number, hitting the market at -6.5 on Sunday night, needing a full 24 hours to begin to move, and then steaming to -8.5 on Tuesday morning before climbing to -9 at some sportsbooks around lunchtime.
- The total jumped as the spread moved, opening at 161.5 and reaching 165 on Tuesday morning.
- The average Liberty pregame total this season has been 167.7, while the average Sky pregame total comes in at 163.9.
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Liberty vs Sky trend
Despite being 2-7 ATS this season, the Liberty have won their seven games by an average of 19 points. Remove two blowouts of the Fever and that average is still 12.2 points, with four of those five wins coming by double digits. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sky.
Liberty vs Sky game info
| Location: | Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-4-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Liberty vs Sky latest injuries
Liberty: None.
Sky: Kamilla Cardoso C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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