The WNBA schedule makers should be embarrassed by their work. The Minnesota Lynx and the New York Liberty have not met yet this season despite being two-thirds of the way through the year.
The 2024 WNBA Finals were riveting; a rematch should have been held in the season’s first week.
My Liberty vs. Lynx predictions hardly look back at those Finals as recent events make for a clear best bet. Let's get into my WNBA picks before tip comes at 8pm ET on Wednesday, July 30.
Liberty vs Lynx predictions
My Liberty vs Lynx best bet: Jonquel Jones Over 14.5 points (-115 at BetMGM)
This game should have been in May. And the realities of the matchup now emphasize that.
If the WNBA schedule makers had leaned into the newfound rivalry between the defending WNBA champions and the team that feels it was robbed by a ref ignoring a clear travel and a commissioner wearing a New York dress at Game 5, then the New York Liberty would have met the Minnesota Lynx at full health.
But as soon as this initial rematch was delayed, that likelihood plummeted.
First, New York had to work through two sprained ankles to Jonquel Jones. Now, it has to endure a to-be-determined stretch without Breanna Stewart as she recovers from an unclear right leg injury.
The Liberty are less of a force without Stewart, just as they were less of a force without Jones. But part of why having both on a roster is such a luxury is that Jones can pick up some of Stewart’s slack, just as Stewart did without Jones.
Without Jones in the lineup this season, Stewart averaged 15.7 shots and 19.2 points in 12 games. With Jones in the lineup, Stewart has averaged 11.5 shots and 17.5 points in 12 games.
They are both lengthy players with extensive post games. That shift made sense. With Jones not on the court, Stewart had that many more chances.
Now that all flips. Jones had taken 13 shots per game while averaging 17.3 points in her first three games back from her second sprained ankle. On Monday, she took 16 shots to score 18 points in her first game without Stewart.
The Liberty are worse off now, but their offense can keep humming as the ball moves through the post, now Jones instead of Stewart.
Liberty vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Jonquel Jones Over 14.5 points
Jonquel Jones Under 9.5 rebounds
Napheesa Collier Over 22.5 points
The Lynx are one of the few teams with the post players to throw at Jones to slow her down on the glass. Jessica Shepard, Alanna Smith and Bridget Carleton can all bang a bit on the glass, effectively ganging up on Jones.
It was that exact design that held her to single-digit rebounds in four of the five games in the WNBA Finals.
And that is all before Napheesa Collier starts causing trouble.
Every Minnesota player was livid about being robbed in the WNBA Finals. Anyone who has watched a basketball game could see Breanna Stewart’s game-winning travel.
But no one was more livid than Napheesa Collier was, especially as she then founded a three-on-three league with Stewart as her co-founder.
Look for Collier to pour it in tonight. Rather, look for MVPhee to pour it in tonight.
Liberty vs Lynx odds
Liberty vs Lynx live odds
Liberty vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: New York +7 | Minnesota -7
- Moneyline: New York +315 | Minnesota -525
- Over/Under: Over 164.5 | Under 164.5
Liberty vs Lynx trend
New York has gone 7-4 against the spread this season with all three of Jones, Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu in the lineup and 4-9-1 ATS without at least one of the three. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Lynx.
How to watch Liberty vs Lynx
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Wednesday, 7-30-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Liberty vs Lynx latest injuries
Liberty: Breanna Stewart (leg), Kennedy Burke (calf), Nyara Sabally (knee) out.
Lynx: Karlie Samuelson (foot) out.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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