Rivalries are what make sports great, and the WNBA opens the first chapter on what will be one of the biggest player-versus-player rivalries in the league for years to come as Sabrina Ionescu goes toe-to-toe with Caitlin Clark when the New York Liberty visit the Indiana Fever tonight.
These sharpshooting guards are revolutionizing women’s basketball with their electric playmaking and unlimited range. Luckily, the WNBA betting odds let us enjoy this showdown on a whole other level.
I break down the spread and Over/Under total for Liberty at Fever and give my best WNBA picks, including a Caitlin Clark prop pick for Thursday, May 16.
Liberty vs Fever predictions
My best bet
Aliyah Boston Over 8.5 rebounds (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
Opening night wasn’t the best showing for the Indiana Fever’s other superstar. Second-year center Aliyah Boston mustered only four points and grabbed six rebounds in the loss to the Connecticut Sun.
Boston looks to bounce back on her home court against the New York Liberty, one of the WNBA’s premier teams. And in a game with plenty of top scorers and a tall total, there will be ample opportunity for Boston to up her effort on the boards.
Last season, the 6-foot-5 South Carolina product averaged just six rebounds on the year. However, she found her form on the glass in the second half of the schedule, pulling down an average of 8.4 boards over the final 20 games of 2023.
The Fever are playing a much quicker tempo with Clark on the floor compared to last season’s methodical approach, which means more shot attempts. The Liberty won’t steer away from a speedier pace and finished second in field-goal attempts per game in 2023.
All of this adds up to more shots and more rebounds. Boston grabbed nine rebounds in two of her four matchups with New York last season.
Player projections for Boston call for more than nine rebounds tonight, with my number sitting just north at 9.1. The WNBA prop odds have her total at 8.5 with some books dealing EVEN money on the Over.
Caitlin Clark odds, prop for tonight
My best bet
Caitlin Clark Under 4.5 assists (+130 at bet365)
My analysis
If the one-sided Over action from opening night is any indication, WNBA bettors will be playing a little extra tax on Caitlin Clark odds — at least in the opening weeks of the schedule.
Clark’s debut was muddled by a bad first half and an overall sloppy game, as Connecticut constantly pestered the star rookie. She finished with 10 turnovers, many of which came on errant passes, leaving Clark with only three assists on the night.
Her assist total for tonight’s run-in with the Liberty is at 4.5 O/U with the Over juiced extremely high (as pricy as -177). Player projections call for five dimes from Clark, which should have the Over priced more in the -118 range.
New York’s defense didn’t look right in the opening night squeaker against Washington, so expect the Liberty to tighten the bolts and get up for this showdown with the new face of the league. New York was among the defensive elite in 2023 and allowed the second-fewest assists per game last season.
Under 4.5 assists from Clark is out there as tasty as +130, giving us some added value for going against that hype.
Liberty vs Fever same-game parlay (SGP)
Aliyah Boston Over 8.5 rebounds
Caitlin Clark Under 4.5 assists
Liberty moneyline
Indiana needs a big night from Boston on the boards and projections call for nine-plus rebounds from her tonight.
Clark prop markets are going to be weird to start the season, with the Under providing more +EV against a wave of one-sided play on her Overs.
The Liberty weren’t happy with their effort in Washington, so I expect a better all-around showing. And we get the bet365 early payout should New York go up by 18 points at any time.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Liberty vs Fever odds
Liberty vs Fever live odds
Get the latest Liberty vs Fever WNBA odds for tonight.
Liberty vs Fever opening odds
- Spread: New York -5.5 (-110) | Indiana +5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York -240 | Indiana +195
- Over/Under: Over 172.5 (-110) | Under 172.5 (-110)
Liberty vs Fever spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oddsmakers opened this marquee matchup on May 10, installing the Liberty as 5.5-point road favorites, That spread ticked up to -6.5 over the past week and now sits as high as New York -7.5 at some books.
- My WNBA power ratings produce a spread of Liberty -7.83, which is in line with the market move for Thursday’s game.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 173.5 O/U on May 10 and has since dropped to as low as 169.5 points at some sportsbooks.
- According to Covers Consensus data, 69% of picks are laying the points with the Liberty while 53% of picks are on the Over. Sportsbooks will likely see one-sided ticket count on Clark and the Fever, as was the case in Indiana’s season opener.
Liberty vs Fever trend
The Indiana Fever are 2-7 ATS in their last nine versus Eastern Conference opponents. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Fever.
Liberty vs Fever game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Thursday, May 16, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MyTV, WWOR-TV |
Liberty vs Fever latest injuries
Liberty: None.
Fever: Damiris Dantas F (Out - Knee).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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