Atlanta Dream vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Plum Will Be a Nightmare for Atlanta

Atlanta has struggled to defend on the road of late and is playing the second leg of a b2b and third road game in four days. A tired — and likely turnover-prone — Dream roster has our free WNBA picks salivating over Aces guard Kelsey Plum's point total.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Aug 13, 2023 • 10:46 ET • 4 min read
Kelsey Plum Las Vegas Aces WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Dream close out a nightmare of a schedule in Sin City today, visiting the league-leading Las Vegas Aces as sizable underdogs.

Atlanta is playing back-to-back games and its third road stop in four days after losing at Los Angeles on Saturday and getting upset in Seattle on Thursday. The WNBA odds are dishing out the points in surplus, with the Dream set as big as 17-point road pups.

Las Vegas bounced back from just its third loss of the season with a pair of one-sided wins, blowing away their last two foes by a combined 44 points while improving to 17-12 against the spread. The Aces thumped Washington 113-89 as 17.5-point favorites in their most recent effort and are 5-1 ATS when laying 16 or more points this season.

I size up this monster spread and Over/Under total and give my best free WNBA picks and predictions for Dream at Aces on Sunday, August 13.

Dream vs Aces best odds

Dream vs Aces picks and predictions

A big spread and a towering team total tell you everything you need to know about the game script in Sin City on Sunday.

The Las Vegas Aces are going to score — and score a lot — versus an Atlanta Dream defense that has made recent road foes like the Sparks and Mercury look like… well, Las Vegas. The Dream have lost their last six road games while allowing those hosts to post 85.7 average points in those matchups.

Las Vegas has the lineup to produce those points and more, with a team total of  96.5 points. The Aces will also catch a road-weary Atlanta team playing the second of back-to-back games and its third road stop in four days.

All-Star guard Kelsey Plum can take advantage of those tired legs, with her scoring props ranging from 18.5 to 19.5 points for Sunday afternoon.

Plum is averaging just 16.3 points through four games in August but has picked up her production with efforts of 19 and 20 points in the previous two outings. Those are more in line with her scoring average of 19.2 points per game on the season.

She’s been much sharper shooting from distance in recent games, knocking down half of her attempts from beyond the arc over the past five outings, compared to a slump of 29% in the five games before that stretch. Plum also enjoys the home-court edge in Sin City, firing at a 52% clip from the field in front of the Vegas faithful.

Not only can Plum do damage from the 3-point arc but she’s also a threat in transition, averaging 4.4 ppg off turnovers and setting the pace for one of the best fastbreak offenses in the land. Atlanta had 17 turnovers, leading to 32 points from the Aces, in the August 1 loss to Las Vegas and the grind of this compact schedule could leave them tired and careless again.

Plum’s player projections range from 18.87 to a ceiling of 23.4 points, with my number coming out to 20.5 points today. Given that forecast, Plum’s point total of 18.5 should be priced more like -138 to the Over than the current low of -125.

My best bet: Kelsey Plum Over 18.5 Points (-125 at FanDuel)

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Dream vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

Following Saturday’s loss in L.A., the Dream opened as low as 15.5-point underdogs with a quick turnaround to play in Las Vegas. That spread didn't stay put, with early money on the Aces pushing this line as high as 17.5 points before 11 p.m. ET Saturday.

As of Sunday morning, Atlanta sits between 16.5 and 17.5 points across the industry. Covers Consensus shows 85% of early picks are gladly laying the points with the Aces while my WNBA power ratings produce a spread of Las Vegas -17.15 — and that’s without adjusting for the Dream’s situational and schedule disadvantages.

These franchises met not too long ago, with the Aces winning 93-72 at home as 13.5-point chalk on August 1. Las Vegas shots better than 52% from the field, including 11-for-23 from beyond the arc. Atlanta shot just 43% from the floor, went 4-for-20 from 3-point range, and managed a total of 29 points in the second half.

The Dream forgot to pack their offense on this current road swing, posting scores of 67 and 74 points in losses to Seattle and Los Angeles while shooting a collective 35.3% in those contests.

Atlanta was one of the more potential attacks in the WNBA but has cooled over the past month, watching its scoring dip from 86.4 points per game to a league-low 75.7 average points on 40.5% shooting the previous 10 outings, while going a dismal 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in that stretch.

As much as the Aces’ offensive power gets all the attention, their defense is equally impactful. Las Vegas owns the best defensive rating in the land (97.4) and limits visitors to an average of only 77.3 points on 41.3% shooting inside Michelob Ultra Arena.

This Over/Under number hit the board at 175.5 points and rose to as high as 176.5 points at some books before coming down to 174.5. This is a much lower total than the 180-point Over/Under for their August 1 meeting, which stayed Under the total with Vegas winning 93-74 (167 total points).

Despite their offensive downtick, the Dream still play one of the fastest tempos in the WNBA and sit No. 3 in pace rating during that 10-game swoon. Atlanta started the season 12-4 Over/Under but has topped the total only once in the past 14 outings (13-1 O/U).

Las Vegas is at the top of that pace metric since July 19 and brings an 18-11 O/U count into Sunday’s home stand. The Aces have gone Over in eight of their last 11 contests going back to July 9, and they average 96.8 points on 50.5% shooting at home — compared to just 91.9 ppg on the road.

Dream vs Aces betting trend to know

The Dream are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Aces.

Dream vs Aces game info

Location: Michelob Ultra Arena, Paradise, NV
Date: Sunday, August 13, 2023
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS Sports Network

Dream vs Aces key injuries

Dream: None
Aces: Candace Parker C (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Pages related to this topic

Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst; has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike. Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet. He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jasons first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns. On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast; WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio; he had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers; flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

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