Neither the Las Vegas Aces nor the Dallas Stars have hit the ground running, though the former is more surprising than the latter. Sorting through the small sample size worries to make Aces vs Wings predictions points us in the direction of doubting Las Vegas early.
That tracks with the Aces’ general lack of focus. They know they will reach the postseason, and their chase for a three-peat will not kick into a higher gear until later in the season. For now, Las Vegas seems likely to muddle to wins rather than blow out most opponents.
Trust that intangible as we find a best bet in our free WNBA picks before Aces vs Wings tips on Wednesday, June 6, at 8:00 ET.
Aces vs Wings predictions
My best bet
Aces first-half team total Under 44.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The instinct should be to doubt the Dallas Wings defense. It holds the No. 8 defensive rating in the WNBA and is closer to No. 11 than No. 7.
But doubting the Las Vegas Aces' early offense makes just as much sense, particularly given it has struggled to clear this first-half total against worse defenses than the Wings. The Aces opened the season with four games against what have revealed themselves to be three of the worst defenses in the WNBA, including two games against the Phoenix Mercury.
Las Vegas topped this total in two of those four games, averaging 44.25 points. By that math, this team total is priced appropriately.
But Dallas’ defense should reveal itself to be better than Los Angeles’, Phoenix’s, or Indiana’s. Well, certainly Indiana’s, the worst defense in the WNBA by eight points per 100 possessions, against which the Aces led 46-38 at halftime two weeks ago.
In Las Vegas’ other two games — against Top-5 defenses — it managed 43 and 34 first-half points.
Not to be too much of an armchair psychologist, but this makes sense. The Aces pulled off their most impressive title yet to end last season. Building into this year may make time, both from recovery and competitive verve standpoints.
It has been much discussed how many WNBA teams find their competitive spark against the Fever. Humbling rookies is part of sports. And, again, Indiana has the worst defense in the WNBA by leaps and bounds. Aside from that first half, Las Vegas has reached this total exactly once.
For now, let’s continue to doubt the Aces early, more in terms of the game clock than the season.
Aces vs Wings same-game parlay (SGP)
Aces 1H TT Under 45.5
Aces moneyline
A'ja Wilson Over 26.5 points
The Aces might be struggling to put up points, and a 4-2 outright record may be disappointing by their standards, but some trust should still be put in the two-time defending champions, particularly coming off a loss.
They should find a way to win, and that way most likely will run through A’ja Wilson.
The best player in the WNBA will not let the Aces scuffle away too much of the season, something she has shown in three straight games, including those two against Top-5 defenses. Wilson has scored at least 28 points in her last three, shooting 51.5% from the field.
Against a defense like Dallas’, Wilson will get hers, even if the rest of Las Vegas does not.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Aces vs Wings odds
Aces vs Wings live odds
Get the latest Aces vs Wings WNBA odds for tonight.
Aces vs Wings opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas -6.5 (-110) | Dallas +6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Las Vegas -280 | Dallas +230
- Over/Under: Over 167 (-110)| Under 167 (-110)
Aces vs Wings spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Aces opened as 5.5-point favorites late Sunday night, a number that jumped to -6.5 before Monday’s sunrise and then to -7.5 on Tuesday afternoon before continuing to climb on Wednesday, peaking at -9 only to settle at -8.5.
- The total opened at 166.5, quickly climbed to 167, and peaked at 170 before returning to 168.5.
- The total rising as the spread moved toward Las Vegas makes sense, given the Aces’ average pregame total this season has been 171.4, compared to the Wings’ of 164.6. A higher total suggests better game control from Las Vegas.
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Aces vs Wings trend
Las Vegas is 1-4 against the spread in its last five trips to Dallas. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Wings.
Aces vs Wings game info
| Location: | College Park Center, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-5-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Aces vs Wings latest injuries
Aces: Kierstan Bell F (Out), Chelsea Gray G (Out).
Wings: Jaelyn Brown G (Out), Satou Sabally F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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