The Las Vegas Aces won back-to-back titles in 2022 and 2023. Just two years later, they may miss the WNBA playoffs entirely behind the expansion Valkyries. There is still time left to improve that standing, but this is very much a possibility.
That fall is not discussed enough. It should not matter too much against the Dallas Wings today, not with Las Vegas being a 9-point favorite. But it should be acknowledged more often.
My Aces vs. Wings predictions and WNBA picks trust the one lasting piece of that Las Vegas dynasty on Sunday, July 27. Even as A’ja Wilson has fallen from her peak, she is still scoring reliably.
Aces vs Wings predictions
My Aces vs Wings best bet: A’ja Wilson Over 23.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)
A’ja Wilson is well aware the Las Vegas Aces are falling short of expectations. She can see the WNBA standings, where Las Vegas is effectively tied for both No. 7 and No. 9, the standings so tight with the Mystics and the Valkyries. The Aces very much could miss the postseason.
The three-time MVP is doing all she can to drag Las Vegas into the playoffs. In the Aces’ last three wins, Wilson has averaged 31.7 points, clearing this prop in all three triumphs. On a related note, those were the last three times the Aces were favorites of at least one bucket, including a 90-86 win at Dallas just before the All-Star break.
At that point, Wilson’s points prop was set at 22.5 at even money. This tick upward makes sense amid Wilson’s surge, but it is not significant enough given the growing desperation for Las Vegas.
Oddsmakers have not escalated this prop enough because the math says not to; when the Aces are getting walloped, like on Friday in Minnesota, Wilson is quick to the bench. She played just 24 minutes in that 31-point loss, scoring only 15.
This makes sense. Becky Hammon needs to grab whatever reprieves she can for her best offensive option.
But when there is little-to-no chance the Aces are going to get blown out, Wilson’s points prop should tick further upward. Grabbing it before that realization becomes common brings us value.
Aces vs Wings same-game parlay (SGP)
A’ja Wilson Over 23.5 points
Arike Ogunbowale Over 17.5 points
Aces -9
With Paige Bueckers resting today, Arike Ogunbowale has a chance to revert to her worst self.
Arike can forever claim she hit two bigger shots than anyone else in basketball history, her back-to-back buzzer beaters to bring Notre Dame a national championship in 2018. But otherwise, it often feels like she has missed more shots than anyone else in basketball history.
Yet, this is the first season in which Ogunbowale’s scoring average has fallen below 18.7 points. She averaged more than 21 in each of the last two seasons. Why the drop off? Obviously, Bueckers now leads the Dallas Wings’ offense. Expect Ogunbowale to revert today.
This furthers belief in the Aces covering. There is a reason Dallas had the No. 1 pick after Ogunbowale carried so much of the load last year.
Aces vs Wings odds
Aces vs Wings live odds
Aces vs Wings opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas -6.5 | Dallas +6.5
- Moneyline: Las Vegas -240 | Dallas +170
- Over/Under: Over 168.5 | Under 168.5
Aces vs Wings trend
For all their flaws, the Aces have won each of the last four games in which they were favored by at least two points. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Wings.
How to watch Aces vs Wings
| Location | College Park Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Sunday, 7-27-2025 |
| Tip-off | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN3, KMCC, KFAA |
Aces vs Wings latest injuries
Aces: Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (Out).
Wings: Paige Bueckers (Out), Myisha Hines-Allen (Out), Tyasha Harris (Out), Maddy Siegrist (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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