The high-scoring Las Vegas Aces wrap up a three-game road trip this afternoon with their third bout of the season against the Washington Mystics.
Washington's perimeter defense has been less than efficient recently, and my Aces vs. Mystics predictions for this non-conference WNBA matchup anticipate the Aces taking advantage of that shaky Washington defense.
Check out why my WNBA picks expect Kelsey Plum to have a big afternoon below.
Aces vs Mystics predictions
My best bet
Kelsey Plum Over 17.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces are riding a three-game winning streak and end a three-game road trip with a matchup against the Washington Mystics.
The Aces offense is rolling; they play at the fastest tempo in the WNBA and have scored 84+ points in nine straight games. A’ja Wilson has regained her scoring touch and the highly anticipated return of Chelsea Gray has given Vegas an additional playmaker that’s benefitted the entire offense.
One Vegas player whose seen her scoring drop off recently is Kelsey Plum. The 29-year-old guard has fallen short of her 18.7 scoring average on consecutive nights but has a great matchup against the Mystics she can exploit today.
Washington has battled through injuries for much of this season and those injuries have been particularly hard on their backcourt. Losing Brittney Sykes and Karlie Samuelson has hurt the Mystics scoring for sure, but their absence has also caused the Washington perimeter defense to struggle, especially so in their last five games.
The Mystics perimeter defense has been leaky; guards have attempted the most 3-pointers per game (16) on an eighth-best 38% shooting from downtown. Guards are also knocking down 48% from the field against the Mystics stop unit which should open the door for Plum to have a big game.
Plum scored 18+ in three of her last six matchups and dropped 28 in 25 minutes in her previous meeting with Washington. She’s struggled a bit recently, but I expect Plum to be aggressive against a Mystics perimeter defense that’s been anything but good recently.
Aces vs Mystics same-game parlay (SGP)
Kelsey Plum Over 17.5 points
Kelsey Plum Over 3.5 threes
Stefanie Dolson Over 1.5 threes
Washington's perimeter defense hasn’t performed well recently but the Aces' 3-point defense can also be shaky, which should open the door for Washington center Stefanie Dolson.
Plum has drained 4+ in four of her last six and went 6-for-9 from downtown in their previous meeting. Plum drains 37% of her attempts from long range and the Mystics have played lousy perimeter defense over their last five.
Dolson is a center who attempts 4.3 triples per contest. She’s hit 2+ triples in six of her past eight and eight of her last 10 home games. The Aces allow an 11th-best 35% shooting from beyond the arc and Dolson shot 5-for-6 from downtown in her last meeting with Vegas.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Aces vs Mystics odds
Aces vs Mystics live odds
Get the latest Aces vs. Mystics WNBA odds for tonight.
Aces vs Mystics opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas -12 | Washington +12
- Moneyline: Las Vegas -850 | Washington +575
- Over/Under: Over 172.5 | Under 172.5
Aces vs Mystics spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Aces are 4-6 ATS across their last 10 away tilts and are favored by as many as -12.5 (-110) points.
- Washington has covered the spread in eight of their last 10 overall and is 7-3 ATS at home this season. They are as many as 12.5-point underdogs.
- Over/Under markets are trading as many as 172.5 (-105) points. Bettors can find Over 171.5 (-110) while Under 172.5 is trading between -110 and -115.
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Aces vs Mystics trend
Kelsey Plum has gone Over her scoring total in six of her last 10 games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Mystics.
Aces vs Mystics game info
| Location: | Entertainment and Sports Arena, Washington, D.C. |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-14-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
Aces vs Mystics latest injuries
Aces: No key injuries to report.
Mystics: Karlie Samuelson G (Out), Brittney Sykes G (Out), Shakira Austin C (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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