The 2025 WNBA Finals have arrived, and the stage is set as the Phoenix Mercury prepare to take on the Las Vegas Aces.
What better way to kick off this historic showdown than with the league’s first-ever best-of-seven Finals?
The desert heat won’t be the only thing blazing as both teams are stacked with star power, and the spotlight couldn’t be brighter.
Before Game 1 tips off on Friday, October 3, let’s dive into our 2025 WNBA series preview and determine who will be the last team standing.
WNBA Championship odds
The Las Vegas Aces open as -135 favorites at DraftKings to win the WNBA Finals against the Phoenix Mercury. While Phoenix’s firepower continues to fly under the radar heading into the final stretch, the betting market still leans toward Las Vegas — highlighted by a +390 series correct score for the Aces to win it in seven games.
A'ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas have led the way
The Las Vegas Aces met the Phoenix Mercury four times during the regular season, taking three of those matchups. But let’s not get it twisted, three of those wins came down to the wire.
Regular-season trends are one thing. Playoff intensity? That's a whole different game. The Mercury have already stunned two championship-caliber squads in the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx. Now, they've got their sights locked on the Aces, ready to add one last name to their list.
A'ja Wilson has been at the center of it all, and rightfully so. Fresh off her fourth MVP award, she’s been nothing short of dominant, shooting 47.9 percent from the field and leading the charge through the postseason. She's the heartbeat of this team and a major reason Las Vegas turned their season around.
But while the spotlight has been on Wilson, Alyssa Thomas has been quietly wreaking havoc on the other end.
After tasting the Finals back in 2019 with Connecticut, Thomas is playing like someone who refuses to let the trophy slip away again. She’s been the Mercury’s foundation — shooting 47 percent from the field, recording the first 20-point triple-double in playoff history, and delivering night in and night out with relentless consistency.
An 11-year vet, Thomas isn’t just showing up — she’s changing the narrative. She’s done being overlooked.
Aces have experience on their side, but have been far from perfect
Don’t get me wrong, the Aces know what it takes. Wilson, 2022 Finals MVP Chelsea Gray, and the ever-steady Jackie Young have been through the fire together. Add in the championship pedigree of Jewell Loyd, and this squad is as dangerous as they come.
Still, cracks have shown. The Aces struggled to close out both the Seattle Storm and Indiana Fever, needing decisive, down-to-the-wire games to advance in each round.
The Mercury have been fearless in the postseason
Meanwhile, the Mercury have built a formidable trio of their own in Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper. They may not have the same championship hardware, but they’ve played like seasoned killers, eliminating elite teams without blinking.
Phoenix’s defense has clearly kicked into high gear this postseason. The Mercury lead all playoff teams in opponents' points per play, points per 100 possessions, and 3-point percentage allowed. A key factor in their series win over the Minnesota Lynx? Holding the league’s top 3-point shooting team to just 29.5% from deep across four games.
And they’ll need to raise the bar even higher to contain A’ja Wilson’s offensive impact.
Another major X-factor for Phoenix: Sabally. Her size advantage over both Jackie Young and Jewell Loyd could create matchup problems for the Aces. That edge opens up space for Sabally’s 3-point shot — where she’s hitting 34.0% from deep in the playoffs — and puts her in position to draw contact and get to the line, averaging 5.9 free throw attempts per game (third-most this postseason).
Phoenix has exposed the flaws in giants before and if Vegas isn’t locked in, they could be next.
2025 WNBA Finals prediction
Fortunately, we’ve got a full seven-game series to settle this. And based on the grit, hunger, and sheer will Phoenix has shown, I’m betting on the Mercury to finish the job. Give me Phoenix in six.
Series Pick: Mercury (+108 at FanDuel)
- Game 1 Time: Friday, October 3 at 8:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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