Rodolfo Vieira vs. Wellington Turman has been added to the main card for UFC 270 betting on Saturday, January 22.
This middleweight bout was originally supposed to serve as the finale on the prelims but after a heavyweight fight between Greg Hardy and Sergey Spivak was rebooked, this matchup was bumped up. UFC betting odds opened with Vieira installed as a significant -300 favorite but have since shortened to -227 while Turman is the underdog at +175.
Here are our best free Vieira vs. Turman picks and predictions for UFC 270 on January 22 from the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA.
Vieira vs Turman fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Vieira vs Turman method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Rodolfo Vieira | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +700 | +650 |
| To win by Points | +420 | +550 |
| To win by Submission | +110 | +950 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of January 20, 2021.
Vieira vs Turman picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Vieira vs Turman betting preview
Rodolfo Vieira is coming off a submission victory over Dustin Stoltzfus in July to bounce back from his first career loss. He's 8-1 in his MMA career, including 3-1 under the UFC banner, with his only defeat coming by way of a shocking second-round submission to Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez last February.
The man nicknamed "The Black Belt Hunter" is typically the one who submits his opponents but after being outstruck and gassing out against Hernandez, he shot for a takedown and got caught in a guillotine.
Vieira's striking and cardio are subpar but he has some of the best grappling credentials in the world. The 32-year-old is a four-time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu World Champion and a seven-time World Cup champion.
Wellington Turman is coming off a split-decision win against Sam Alvey last August to improve his UFC record to 2-3.
Despite being just 25 years old, Turman has extensive experience in MMA with a 17-5 career record across various promotions. With a black belt in BJJ and a background in Muay Thai, the Brazilian is a well-rounded fighter but doesn't stand out in any one area.
Vieira vs Turman tale of the tape
| Rodolfo Vieira | Wellington Turman | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 25 |
| 6-foot | Height | 6-foot |
| 185 lbs | Weight | 185 lbs |
| 73 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 8-1-0 (1 KO) | Record | 17-5-0 (4 KO) |
Vieira vs Turman UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Vieira (-227)
You can't help but wonder if Dana White is trying to market Vieira as a contender by matching him up against guys that won't be able to wreck him standing up.
While Vieira has faced some subpar competition, Turman's only victories in the octagon have come against a pair of tomato cans as well. Alvey doesn't have a single win in his last seven fights while Markus Perez lost three in a row before getting cut from the promotion and then immediately lost in Cage Warriors as well.
Turman certainly has the better striking but he's still not a standout in that area and hasn't knocked out anybody since 2016 when he was competing in a tiny promotion called University of Champions.
However, Turman is a willing grappler and despite seven submission victories of his own, there are levels to BJJ and Vieira is on another. Vieira should be able to pick up another win but given the holes in his striking, taking him at over -200 is not worth it. Turman's more diverse skillset and experience give him a solid chance of pulling off the upset so for best value look elsewhere.
Best bet: Vieira by submission (+110)
This is a very intriguing line when you consider that seven of Vieira's eight career wins have come by way of submission. Winning by submission is practically his sole path to victory and given Turman's BJJ pedigree, it's very likely that this fight will end up on the mat.
It makes little sense that there is such a massive disparity between Vieira to win outright and his "win by submission" prop. And if you're open to the possibility that he might be upset with another submission after getting tired and softened by strikes, you can always bet the fight to end in submission prop at -125 instead.
