UFC Fight Night Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape Predictions, Picks & Odds

Brandon Royval takes on Manel Kape in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday. 

We saw four of the best flyweights in the world at UFC 323 last weekend, and we get two more in the final event of the year as the No. 3 contender Royval faces the No. 6 Kape. Kape may be slightly behind Royval in the rankings, but UFC odds have him as a sizable -290 favorite.

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape predictions and picks for December 13, from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Royval vs Kape prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Royval moneyline (+220 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Royval by decision (+575 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Brandon "Raw Dog" Royval is 5-2 in his last seven fights. His only defeats during that span came in a competitive title fight against Alexandre Pantoja in 2023 and a loss to current champ Joshua Van in June.

While he lost to Van, it was a competitive slugfest that earned Fight of the Night honors. He also has recent split decision wins against former champ Brandon Moreno and contender Tatsuro Taira. 

Manel Kape has gone 6-1 in his seven fights, with four of those victories coming by KO/TKO. However, the best win on his resume is a recent TKO win against Asu Almabayev, where he fouled his opponent multiple times leading up to the finish. 

The Angolan thrives in technical bouts but could find it hard to get into a rhythm against the chaotic Royval, who is unpredictable and has wild scrambles. 

Kape is the slightly cleaner striker with a bit more speed. That said, Royval is no slouch in the striking department with his unorthodox attacks and his willingness to brawl. Royval also has the grappling upside to maintain an incredible pace for five rounds, while Kape is largely unproven past the 15-minute mark. 

With Royval's experience in five-round fights against the cream of the crop in the division, his line should be closer to +150. That makes him the value bet at +215.

Best bet analysis

I like the moneyline value on Royval, but I love the "win by decision" prop even more at +575. 

Royval will have a tough time submitting Kape, who has an impressive 81% takedown defense and isn't easy to control on the mat. He'll have an even tougher time knocking out Kape, who has never lost by KO/TKO in his career. 

However, Royval has a very clear path to win by points, which doesn't seem accurately priced on the odds board. With his volume, pressure, and bottomless gas tank, Royval could melt Kape in the championship rounds and pull away for a decision.  

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Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape odds

Method of Victory	Royval	Kape
To win outright	+225	-280
To win by KO/TKO	+1100	+115
To win by decision	+575	+280
To win by submission	+790	+850
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 12-13.

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Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape tale of the tape

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