All eyes will be on the Octagon on Saturday night as Conor McGregor makes his long-awaited return to the cage to face Max Holloway at UFC 329.
UFC 329 odds at Kalshi currently list Holloway as a -178 favorite, and our MMA specialists have you covered with their best Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway expert picks ahead of the July 11 showdown.
McGregor vs Holloway expert picks
| Writer | Who Will Win | Favorite Prop |
|---|---|---|
 Joe Osborne |
Holloway -178 | Holloway by TKO/KO -104 |
 Danny Howard |
Holloway -178 | Over 2.5 rounds -105 |
 Cody Saftic |
Holloway -178 | Over 2.5 rounds -105 |
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Joe Osborne's expert picks
Who Will Win: Holloway
Kalshi probability: 64%
American odds: -178
Conor McGregor is 1-3 in his last four UFC fights.
The last time we saw him, his leg literally snapped in half in a fight he was well on his way to losing against Dustin Poirier.
An upset win over Max Holloway would make for a fun story, but after a five-year layoff, expecting an improved McGregor at 37 is unrealistic.
Favorite Prop: Holloway by TKO/KO
Kalshi probability: 49%
American odds: -104
While McGregor’s power could still be there in the early part of the fight, he won’t be able to match Holloway’s volume, pace, or durability.
The longer the fight goes, the worse McGregor will look, and when he loses, it tends to be in devastating fashion as he’s been finished in all six of his career defeats.
Danny Howard's expert picks
Who Will Win: Holloway
Kalshi probability: 64%
American odds: -178
I can't trust that McGregor has much left after a five-year layoff caused by a gruesome injury, coupled with the documented controversies that have only further derailed his career.
In his last four fights, McGregor lost three by stoppage after the opening round. Holloway's relentless pace, elite boxing, and legendary durability should allow him to weather McGregor's early offense before taking over as the fight progresses.
I expect Holloway to wear McGregor down and earn the victory.
Favorite Prop: Over 2.5 rounds
Kalshi probability: 51%
American odds: -105
McGregor will likely come out aggressively looking for an early finish, but Holloway has only been stopped once in his professional career and has already proven he can survive McGregor's power.
Considering Holloway's durability and McGregor's tendency to fade after a fast start, this fight should extend beyond the midway point before Holloway takes control.
Cody Saftic's expert picks
Who Will Win:
Kalshi probability: 64%
American odds: -105
Conor hasn’t fought in five years since breaking his ankle in gruesome fashion, and Holloway has been consistently mixing it up with the best fighters on the planet during that same stretch.
Don’t overthink this one and let your emotions come into play; take Holloway to get his revenge and win this fight.
Favorite Prop: Over 2.5 rounds
Kalshi probability: 51%
American odds: -105
I fully expect Max to take control of this fight and possibly score a late finish, but both of these fighters are former featherweight greats who are now rematching at 170 pounds.
Punching power tends to diminish the higher you go up in weight class, and I don’t expect a quick ending for either side.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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