Cory Sandhagen and Mario Bautista meet once again at UFC 329 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Although Sandhagen won the first meeting seven years ago, Bautista has quietly developed into one of the division's most complete fighters and enters the rematch at +110 in the UFC odds.
Find out why my Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista predictions are backing the underdog in my free betting picks for Saturday, July 11.
Who will win Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista: Bautista (+110)
While Cory Sandhagen has spent years competing against the division's elite, Mario Bautista has rounded out his game and is on the best run of his career.
Bautista's improved wrestling is particularly relevant after Sandhagen surrendered 20 takedowns in his recent loss to Merab Dvalishvili.
If Bautista can mix his wrestling with his already solid striking, he'll be well-equipped to prevail.
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Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista best bet: Bautista by decision (+185)
Sandhagen remains a quality fighter who is awkward and difficult for anyone to deal with, but he has a glaring weakness in his takedown defense and will struggle with Bautista's athleticism.
Bautista's measured improvements will help him outlast Sandhagen and win on the scorecards.
COVERS INTEL: Bautista lands 5.30 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy while averaging 1.91 takedowns per 15 minutes, giving him multiple ways to bank rounds against Sandhagen.Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista |
| To win outright | -140 | +110 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +380 | +1200 |
| To win by decision | +170 | +185 |
| To win by submission | +1100 | +900 |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 -270 |
Under 2.5 +200 |
Odds as of 7-10.
Bautista has attracted steady betting support since the opening line, but Sandhagen's reputation has kept the market relatively competitive.
Sandhagen and Bautista are known for their finesse, and neither has a reputation for chasing a finish, which is why I'm anticipating this fight going the distance and Bautista getting the nod.
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Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista tale of the tape
| Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 33 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| Bantamweight | Weight Class | Bantamweight |
| 70 inches | Reach | 69 inches |
| 18-6 | Record | 17-3 |
| 8 | Wins by KO | 3 |
| 3 | Wins by submission | 7 |
Sandhagen holds slight advantages in height and reach and submitted Bautista in their first meeting after Bautista accepted the fight on short notice.
Since then, Bautista has won nine of his last 10 bouts.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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