The “Notorious” Conor McGregor will finally make his long-awaited return to the Octagon on Saturday when the former two-division UFC champ faces Max Holloway in the main event of UFC 329 in Las Vegas.
Despite Holloway already owning a win over his opponent, the UFC odds believe that enough has changed over the past 13 years to make McGregor a modest +175 betting underdog against Max Holloway.
Bookmakers are actually being quite generous to the Irishman, so I'm all over the favorite in my Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway predictions and free betting picks for July 11.
Who will win Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway: Holloway (-230)
Conor McGregor is such a massive character in the sport that any time he fights, the Irishman gets massively overvalued because of all the fan support.
McGregor was only a small underdog against Khabib Nurmagomedov despite a chaotic fight camp, and he was still priced at even money against Dustin Poirier in their trilogy bout just six months after being knocked out by him.
Even when McGregor randomly took a boxing match against Floyd Mayweather, the public still supported him and bet him down to a moderate underdog.
The facts are that Conor hasn't fought in five years since suffering a gruesome ankle injury, while Max Holloway has consistently mixed it up with the best fighters on the planet during that same stretch.
Don't overthink this one and let your emotions come into play. Take Holloway to get his revenge and win this fight.
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Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-110)
I fully expect Max to take control of this fight and possibly score a late finish, but both of these fighters are former featherweight greats who are now rematching at 170 pounds. Punching power tends to diminish the higher you go up in weight class, and I don’t expect a quick ending for either side.
McGregor is the more proven finisher of the two, but Holloway has only been knocked out once in 38 career fights and has historically been one of the most durable fighters of all time. On the flip side, Holloway isn't a quick finisher himself, with 12 of his last 13 wins going Over 2.5 total rounds.
COVERS INTEL: Conor McGregor has not won a sanctioned fight in 2,365 days.Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Conor McGregor | Max Holloway |
| To win outright | +175 | -230 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +265 | -115 |
| To win by decision | +1100 | +550 |
| To win by submission | +2000 | +1200 |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 -110 |
Under 2.5 -120 |
Odds as of 7-11.
If Max Holloway was fighting anyone who hadn't competed in five years and was coming off one of the nastiest ankle injuries you'll see in a UFC fight, he would likely be a colossal favorite.
But because it's Conor McGregor, you're getting a line that should be closer to -500 at the bargain price of -230, and I'd be willing to play it even if it doubled.
As for Over 2.5 rounds, I feel comfortable playing it at -110, but given McGregor's lengthy layoff and injury setback in his last fight, I wouldn't touch it past -150.
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Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway tale of the tape
| Conor McGregor | Max Holloway | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 34 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 74 inches | Reach | 69 |
| 22-6 | Record | 27-9 |
| 19 | Wins by KO | 12 |
| 1 | Wins by submission | 2 |
Both men have already faced each other once before, going the distance in 2013 when McGregor improved to 14-2 with a decision win. That marked his second UFC victory.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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