UFC Fight Night Williams vs Harris Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Williams Won't Waste Time

Khaos Williams vs. Carlston Harris is the co-main event for tonight’s UFC Fight Night and one of our premier events for UFC betting. These two welterweights are reliable finishers and their fists are expected to fly as these two aim to steal the show.

UFC odds have Williams a slight -135 favorite, with Harris coming back at +110. Here are my free betting picks for Williams vs. Harris from the Apex in Las Vegas.

Williams vs Harris prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Khaos Williams moneyline (-135 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Khaos Williams to win in Round 1 (+350 at BET99)

Fight analysis

The aptly named Khaos is known for his wild swinging strikes and fast-paced style, though he'd probably benefit from taking things down a notch. Williams is destructive, but limited. He can hurt you with wild shots that come out of nowhere because of everything he throws, he does it with 100% intensity, and that means he’s prone to gassing out and getting sloppy.

He’s coming off a split-decision win over Rolando Bedoya, who he barely outpaced as Bedoya managed to survive his early onslaught. He wasn’t as lucky when he found Randy Brown and lost that fight, as well as to Micheal Pereira in 2020.

If you stand and bang with Williams, there's a good chance he’ll knock you out or hurt you bad enough that you’ll think twice before opening up. However, fighters with good movement and durability can outlast him and get him in serious trouble. 

From a technical standpoint, Harris is the better fighter, but there are a few things that make me not want to pick him. He’s better, but not by much. Harris tends to toss punches without a lot of power, which are looping and wide, and he's more dangerous on the ground than in the striking department, though he can wrestle if he has to.

Williams is hard to take down, defending 80% of takedown attempts made against him, and Harris isn’t busy enough in striking to keep pace with him. Harris is also 36 and he’s starting to slow down to the point where it’s becoming easier to close the distance on him.

Even if Williams empties his arsenal early, he wins this fight as long as he can avoid the ground. This should be a barnburner, but I’m of the mind that Khaos reigns supreme in the co-main event.

Best best analysis

There's a chance Harris stays upright long enough to tie Williams up once he gasses out. He’ll have a hard time implementing his preferred game plan because Williams is physically tough and is good at defending takedowns.

If Harris survives the first round and does so without getting nailed with a big shot, he can take advantage of a fatigued Williams and his already questionable defense. I don’t see Harris having much success in wrestling Williams and he’s too conservative offensively to outlast him in a firefight. 

Harris is more of a submission stylist, anyway, and that reliance on being close will be his undoing. Though Williams is limited, he’s explosive and busy and is always in the fight due to his stopping power and intensity.

While he might have some steam come off his shots if the fight goes into the later rounds, that power is still there, and Harris is liable to get caught at any point. Harris has a pair of first-round knockout losses already and the signs point to another one coming down the pipeline.

Though Williams is likely to settle as an exciting undercard filler, he’s still got more going for him than Harris. Expect Williams to start hard and fast, catching Harris with a bomb in the first round that puts him down and out.

Williams vs Harris odds

Method of Victory	Williams	Harris
To win outright	-135	+110
To win by KO/TKO	+135	+675
To win by points	+525	+365
To win by submission	+1,800	+390
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 5-18.

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Williams vs Harris tale of the tape

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