Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes Predictions, Picks & Odds

Carlos Ulberg faces off against Dominick Reyes in the headline event for UFC Fight Night this evening. 

Ulberg is the No. 3-ranked light heavyweight contender, and UFC odds have him installed as a -250 favorite against the No. 7-ranked Reyes. 

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes predictions for Saturday, September 27, from the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia.

Ulberg vs Reyes prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Ulberg moneyline (-250 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Ulberg by KO/TKO (-125 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Carlos Ulberg boasts the longest active UFC winning streak at light heavyweight, having reeled off eight victories in a row. In his most recent bout, he defeated Jan Blachowicz by unanimous decision in March.

Dominick Reyes is best known as the guy who almost ended Jon Jones' reign at light heavyweight. After losing a razor-thin decision to Jones in 2020, he lost his aura as well, getting knocked out in his next three fights.

Since then, Reyes has turned things around, winning three in a row by way of KO/TKO against Dustin Jacoby, Anthony Smith, and Nikita Krylov. 

He's on a nice little win streak, but none of the foes Reyes faced during that span were able to find his chin. Smith is washed up and recently retired after losing six of his last eight bouts, while Krylov is hittable and hasn't fought in two years.

Reyes will have a much tougher time against Ulberg, who is in the prime of his career and has sharp striking defense. Ulberg is the more technical kickboxer, and his elite counter-striking will hurt Reyes when he blitzes.

Best bet analysis
Ulberg is coming off a pair of decision victories against Blachowicz and Volkan Oezdemir. However, four of his previous five wins had come by way of knockout.

It's worth noting that the fights against Blachowicz and Volkan Oezdemir were scheduled for 15 minutes (as opposed to this 25-minute main event), and both of them are more defensively responsible than Reyes.

Reyes tends to be aggressive with his striking, and he leaves his hands down in exchanges, which isn't a good idea against somebody who counters as well as Ulberg.

After getting brutally knocked out three times in two years, I don't trust Reyes' chin, and Ulberg's powerful check left hook should be able to find it.

Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes odds

Method of Victory	Ulberg	Reyes
To win outright	-250	+205
To win by KO/TKO	-125	+425
To win by decision	+440	+640
To win by submission	+1750	+1900
Draw	+3300	+3300

Odds as of 9-27.

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Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes tale of the tape

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