Arman Tsarukyan vs. Damir Ismagulov is scheduled for three rounds in the lightweight division as a featured undercard attraction on the UFC Fight Night card from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
These are two of the most dangerous fighters in the lightweight division who are facing each other because... well, no one else will.
UFC odds have Tsarukyan as a -190 favorite to win. Ismagulov is the betting underdog at +160.
Here are my picks and predictions for Tsarukyan vs. Ismagulov at UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas.
Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov fight odds
Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Arman Tsarukyan | Damir Ismagulov |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +380 | +850 |
| To win by Points | +130 | +260 |
| To win by Submission | +850 | +2,800 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on December 15, 2022.
Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov betting preview
Tsarukyan and Ismagulov are wily battlers who are as tough as they are skilled. They both have been flirting with a major fight at the lightweight division for some time, but these dangerous fighters aren’t finding any luck in luring a big name to face them. As a result, these two boogeymen hope a show-stealing performance will thrust them into the spotlight.
The Armenian is coming off a contested defeat to Mateusz Gamrot last June but looks to be a player at lightweight. While the only advantage he brings into the octagon is his youth, he’s a strong wrestler who went the distance with Islam Makhachev in 2019. His loss to Gamrot hasn’t knocked him too far back in the rankings, although a loss here in another tough fight is not an option.
Tsarukyan is a diligent grappler with crisp and stiff striking. He averages 3.76 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy with 2.71 takedowns per 15 minutes at 33%. Of his five wins in the UFC, two have come by stoppage and he has outlanded six of his last seven opponents in total strikes.
Ismagulov is marching his way up the ranking as well. The Russian hasn’t lost a fight since 2015 and is undefeated in the UFC since joining in 2018. His run with the UFC began shortly after winning the M-1 Global lightweight title, still performing at a high level. A win here will propel him into a big fight, but he must tighten up his defense after narrowly outpointing Guram Kutateladze in June.
Like his opponent, Ismagulov has a balanced technique. He averages 4.05 significant strikes per minute at 42% accuracy and 1.40 takedowns per 15 minutes at 28% accuracy. He is a creative striker who is slippery enough in exchanges to avoid big shots, and he’s very physically strong where he can stuff takedowns and force the fight to stay standing.
Tsarukyan is the heavier-handed striker, but he won’t beat Ismagulov in a pure striking fight. “Ahalkalakets” might get worked over if he can't mix up his offense. At the same time, Ismagulov hasn’t faced a fighter of this caliber and might not be up to snuff. Expect a tightly-contested fight that could be up in the air after three rounds.
Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov tale of the tape
| Arman Tsarukyan | Damir Ismagulov | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 155 lbs | Weight | 155 lbs |
| 70 inches | Reach | 70 inches |
| 18-3 (7 KO) | Record | 24-1 (12 KO) |
Tsarukyan vs Ismagulov UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Tsarukyan ML
A red flag here is that Ismagulov doesn’t hit that hard. His fights go the full distance and rely on guile instead of grit, so he might not be able to get Tsarukyan off him. Things could get interesting if Tsarukyan can get inside and move him back toward the cage.
These two are extraordinarily tough. If anyone gets a stoppage, it will be a bit of an upset in itself. We feel that Tsarukyan’s advantages in power and experience should be enough to slow Ismagulov down and come up with a win.
Prediction: Tsarukyan moneyline (-190 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Tsarukyan by decision
Although this figures to be a tough fight, Tsarukyan has an edge in striking power and experience. A finish is unlikely, so we anticipate this as a fight that gets decided on the cards.
This should be a dogfight until the end. Even so, Tsarukyan by decision at +130 is my best bet for the night.
Pick: Tsarukyan to win by decision (+130 at DraftKings)
