Former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya faces Joe Pyfer in the main event of UFC Fight Night tonight.
UFC odds opened this fight as a pick’em, but money has come in on Adesanya, moving him to -150 ahead of his showdown at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle.
Find out why I'm going against the line movement with my UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, March 28.
Adesanya vs Pyfer fight prediction: Pyfer moneyline (+120)
Adesanya is on a three-fight skid, most recently getting knocked out by Nassourdine Imavov. While there’s no shame in losing to Top-5 contenders, he’s looked progressively worse in each fight. Izzy has long relied on his movement and speed— typically the first attributes to fade as fighters age.
Pyfer is 6-1 in the UFC, with five of those wins coming by finish. He isn’t on the same level as the opponents Adesanya has lost to, but he’s big, fast, and hits hard.
Izzy will look sharp at times but in a five-round bout, he’ll eventually get cracked and potentially finished.
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Adesanya vs Pyfer best bet: Pyfer moneyline (+120)
Pyfer is available at plus money because he was outpointed by Jack Hermansson the last time he faced a ranked opponent.
However, that was two years ago and Pyfer looked great in the first two rounds. He’s evolved as a fighter and won’t gas out this time.
Izzy is favored due to his championship resume but is clearly past his peak, and MMA is a sport where even legends decline quickly.
COVERS INTEL: Pyfer throws powerful punches over the top and straight down the pipe. Adesanya isn’t slick enough to avoid those shots anymore and he reacts badly to getting hit.Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Adesanya | Pyfer |
| To win outright | -140 | +120 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +290 | +265 |
| To win by decision | +190 | +850 |
| To win by submission | +1900 | +575 |
| Total rounds | Over 3.5 -120 |
Under 3.5 -110 |
Odds as of 3-28.
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Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer tale of the tape
| Adesanya | Pyfer | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 29 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-2 |
| Middleweight | Weight Class | Middleweight |
| 80 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 24-5 | Record | 15-3 |
| 16 | Wins by KO | 9 |
| 0 | Wins by submission | 4 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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