Michael Chiesa's homecoming bout against Niko Price this Saturday will also serve as his retirement fight.
Chiesa is the heavy favorite at -900 in the UFC odds, while Price is a +540 underdog.
My Chiesa vs. Price predictions and free betting picks believe Chiesa will end his career with a submission win on March 28.
Chiesa vs Price fight prediction: Chiesa moneyline (-900)
Michael Chiesa might get the storybook ending most fighters don’t with Niko Price stepping in for visa-plagued Carlston Harris.
Chiesa’s control-heavy style will do well against Price’s limited grappling defense. Though Chiesa is winding down, he’s won his last three fights, whereas Price has lost his last three.
Chiesa is the pick.
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Chiesa vs Price best bet: Chiesa by submission (-125)
Cheisa had enough in the tank to beat Harris, so he shouldn’t struggle against the more limited Price.
Chiesa gets his opponents down, keeps them there, and is an active submission artist. With 11 submission wins and Price’s notably bad ground defense, the elements are there for Chiesa to go out with a finish.
As long as Chiesa’s signature defense holds up and denies Price the striking range he relies on offensively, he’ll get him on the mat and take his back for a short night.
Chiesa by submission is my best bet.
COVERS INTEL: Michael Chiesa absorbs just 1.16 significant strikes per minute, the lowest rate among active welterweights, and owns the second-highest significant strike defense at 66.2%.Michael Chiesa vs Niko Price odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Chiesa | Price |
| To win outright | -900 | +540 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +700 | +1750 |
| To win by decision | +230 | +1500 |
| To win by submission | -155 | +2250 |
| Total rounds | Over 1.5 -145 |
Under 1.5 +115 |
Odds as of 3-28.
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Michael Chiesa vs Niko Price tale of the tape
| Chiesa | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 36 |
| 6-foot-1 | Height | 6-foot |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 75 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 19-7 | Record | 16-10 |
| 0 | Wins by KO | 10 |
| 12 | Wins by submission | 3 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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