Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim Predictions, Picks & Odds

Gabriel Bonfim looks to announce his arrival against the welterweight elite with a win over Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson Thompson tonight.

Bonfim is a significant -450 favorite over Thompson, and I expect him to pull away in front of the Nashville crowd. 

Here are my UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Bonfim predictions and free picks from Bridgestone Arena.

Thompson vs Bonfim prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Bonfim moneyline (-45 0at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Bonfim to win by submission (+125 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Stephen Thompson is a future UFC Hall of Famer and one of the best technical strikers ever, but at 42 years old and in a division bursting with talent, he’s relegated to a high-level gatekeeper as his vulnerability increases.

This makes him the perfect opponent for Gabriel Bonfim, whose striking and grappling are both top-notch, and he's banging on the door of the welterweight elite with Thompson being the last potential hurdle. 

Bonfim holds all the cards against this version of Thompson. The striking is on point, and he's a black belt BJJ practitioner with four of his five UFC wins coming by submission.

Even when Thompson was younger, he’d have a hard time with the grappling, and it's only getting worse when it comes down to his takedown defense, as evident in that he’s absorbed 19 takedowns in his last five fights. As long as Bonfim doesn’t give Thompson the distance for his kicks and keeps him on the back foot, he’ll win the fight.

From a technical standpoint, Thompson is the superior striker, and there’s a chance his tricky footwork prevents Bonfim from advancing and limits his takedown attempts. However, his recent form suggests he’s unable to keep that pace and doesn’t have the power in his strikes to catch Bonfim with the same shot Nicholas Dalby did. Eventually, Bonfim is going to close the distance, and Thompson doesn’t have the means to fight him off.

Thompson’s best chance is to try and stretch the fight out, as Bonfim’s conditioning could be in question, as he’s seldom been pushed into the third round. Once upon a time, Thompson could feasibly make that happen, but he’s outgunned and in with a finisher who specializes in getting things done on the mat. Bonfim is the pick.

Best bet analysis
There’s a huge chance this fight gets to the ground, especially with Bonfim averaging 3.68 takedowns per fight, and Thompson has been put on the mat 19 times in his last five fights. With Bonfim’s quick hands and greater mobility, he’ll bypass Thompson’s length and have no issues getting him on the mat.

With Bonfim’s fights averaging under seven minutes combined with Thompson’s inability to defend himself on the mat, Bonfim by submission is my best bet.

Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim odds

Method of Victory	Thompson	Bonfim
To win outright	+350	-450
To win by KO/TKO	+1050	+425
To win by decision	+640	+225
To win by submission	+3000	+125
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 7-12.

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Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim tale of the tape

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