UFC featherweight Arnold Allen is eager to right the ship and get back into the win column, but first, he’ll have to come up big against streaking contender Melquizael Costa in the main event of UFC Fight Night on Saturday, May 16.
This will be Allen’s third time headlining a UFC card and fighting in a scheduled five-round fight, while his Brazilian opponent, Costa, finds himself in a main event for the first time in his career.
Allen’s high-level experience gives him the edge in this spot, and current UFC odds have him as a -140 favorite.
My Allen vs. Costa predictions and free betting picks for May 16 are backing him to edge out a close decision and secure the victory.
Allen vs Costa fight prediction: Allen moneyline (-140)
Arnold Allen has already proven capable of winning rounds against the sport's elite competitors, including Max Holloway, Movsar Evloev, and Jean Silva, but he’s still searching for a complete performance and a signature victory to propel him into UFC featherweight title conversations.
Although Melquizael Costa enters this bout on a six-fight win streak, he hasn’t faced anywhere near the level of competition his opponent has. Both men favor striking exchanges, but Allen does a better job of managing his offensive pace.
Expect this fight to be competitive for the first three rounds before Allen drags Costa into the championship rounds and takes advantage of his fading opponent’s cardio to score a victory.
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Allen vs Costa best bet: Fight to go the distance (-125)
For all of the skills that Allen possesses, he’s not the biggest finisher.
Eight of Allen's last 10 fights have gone to the judge's scorecards, and of the two finishes, one came when his opponent blew out his knee in a freak occurrence.
COVERS INTEL: Arnold Allen's bouts have been decided on the scorecards in 10 of his 14 UFC fights, a 72% rate.Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Allen | Costa |
| To win outright | -140 | +110 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +375 | +575 |
| To win by decision | +185 | +305 |
| To win by submission | +1100 | +625 |
| Total rounds | Over 4.5 -140 |
Under 4.5 +110 |
Odds as of 5-15.
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Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa tale of the tape
| Allen | Costa | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 29 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| Featherweight | Weight Class | Featherweight |
| 70 inches | Reach | 71 inches |
| 20-4 | Record | 26-7 |
| 7 | Wins by KO | 9 |
| 4 | Wins by submission | 8 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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