UFC Fight Night Sherman vs Cortes-Acosta Picks and Predictions: Down Goes the Vanilla Gorilla

Chase Sherman appears to be a showcase for Waldo Cortes-Acosta despite the favored fighter just sitting around -210 on the moneyline. Can the uneven "Vanilla Gorilla" squeak out the upset or will Cortes-Acosta make quick work of him?

Last Updated: Nov 19, 2022 7:26 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

Chase Sherman vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta is scheduled for three rounds in the heavyweight division as a featured undercard attraction of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night from the Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Cortes-Acosta is making a quick turnaround from outpointing one overmatched journeyman, and Sherman is daring him to try and repeat the feat against his formidable power.

UFC odds favor the undefeated Cortes-Acosta at -210. Sherman has to put it all together to win here, so it’s no surprise he’s a betting underdog at +180.

Here are our picks and predictions for Sherman vs. Cortes-Acosta at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas.

Sherman vs Cortes-Acosta fight odds

Sherman vs Cortes-Acosta method of victory odds

Method of Victory Chase Sherman Waldo Cortes-Acosta
To win by KO/TKO/DQ +380 -105
To win by Decision +400 +550
To win by Submission +2,500 +800
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on November 16, 2022.

Sherman vs Cortes-Acosta picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Sherman vs Cortes-Acosta betting preview

Cortes-Acosta wastes little time stepping back into the octagon less than two months after Jared Vanderaa took him to the distance. While Sherman didn’t get his chance to fight Josh Parisian on that same card, he’s not being rushed into this. Cortes-Acosta failed to make an impact in his last fight, so he gets another chance here against a big-punching veteran who will be out to test his chin.

Some are hoping Cortes-Acosta can turn into something interesting at heavyweight. He has fast hands and excellent movement, and he transitions from a volume striker to a home-run hitter when the situation calls for it. While Cortes-Acosta didn’t look spectacular against Vanderaa, he dominated the fight from the outside and defended well.

“Salsa Boy” works behind his activity, landing 6.21 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy and taking 3.80 strikes in return. The Dominican has scored four stoppages in his eight wins and has an average fight time of 9:20 so far. Sherman isn’t looking to take him to the ground, meaning he’ll have to contend with Cortes-Acosta’s fast hands and sharp boxing.

Sherman was moments away from a winnable fight with Parisian until his challenger fell ill before the bout could take place. Even so, Sherman is a reliable gatekeeper who can bang and give rising prospects some rounds. Every fight for Sherman is a must-win as he isn’t too far removed from a four-fight losing streak, the most recent of several losing streaks that have defined his time in the UFC.

Sherman lands 6.51 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy and has 15 wins by knockout with an average fight length of 10 minutes. “The Vanilla Gorilla” has a crude boxing technique from his bare-knuckle days, but he can be effective and could give Cortes-Acosta some trouble in the boxing department. Though Sherman isn’t consistent, he can hit pretty hard and has great follow-through when he has his opponents hurt.

While this is a UFC match, this is going to look like a heavyweight boxing fight when we take each fighter’s background into consideration. However, these two operate behind a lot of activity and power, so there could be some sustained action here. Critical to victory for both fighters are their chins and endurance, though it does seem on paper that Cortes-Acosta is up to the task.

Sherman vs Cortes-Acosta tale of the tape

Chase Sherman   Waldo Cortes-Acosta
32 Age
6-foot-4 Height 6-foot-4
255.5 lbs Weight 260.5 lbs
78 inches Reach 70 inches
16-10-0 (15 KO) Record 8-0-0 (4 KO)

Sherman vs Cortes-Acosta UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

At 8-0, Cortes-Acosta shouldn’t be fighting this level of opposition unless there are some kinks to iron out. He’s getting this fight purely to deliver an impressive performance, which is what was expected in his last fight. Sherman takes so much punishment that a highlight reel stoppage should be a given, but that is yet to be seen.

Cortes-Acosta does have an upside. This isn’t the kind of fight he should lose, even if he doesn’t end up delivering over the long run, and Sherman’s leaky defense will play a big part in that. The Dominican is still only a moderate favorite — and might have an issue with his chin — but is too refined for Sherman to trouble him.

We’re not sure what the long-term plans will be for him, but Cortes-Acosta isn’t getting another chance for an easy win to suffer an upset loss. Expect Cortes-Acosta to score win number nine without too much trouble.

Prediction: Waldo Cortes-Acosta moneyline (-210 at DraftKings)

Cortes-Acosta has to score a stoppage here. If he somehow goes the distance with two hittable journeymen picked specifically to highlight his skills, it will damage his stock. Sherman will get hit plenty, and while taking those shots in stride and trying to mount a counter-attack, he’ll be overwhelmed. There won’t be a one-punch KO, but expect Cortes-Acosta to deliver a comprehensive beating that causes the referee or Sherman’s corner to throw in the towel in short order. 

The Dominican’s fast hands and imposing size should get him the type of win he needs to graduate to the next level. We don’t think he has one-hitter-quitter power, and Sherman’s own boxing skills should see this fight go Under 1.5 rounds at +105.

Pick: Under 1.5 rounds (+105 at DraftKings)

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