Undefeated featherweight Luke Riley hopes to make the most of his homecoming against the aggressive and determined Michael Aswell Jr. on Saturday's UFC Fight Night undercard.
Riley is the favorite at -260, while Aswell is a +205 underdog in the UFC odds.
These two strikers are not going into this fight looking to go the distance, but Riley’s precision should overcome Aswell's volume. Read on for my full Riley vs. Aswell predictions and free betting picks for March 21.
Riley vs Aswell fight prediction: Riley to win (-260)
Luke Riley has nine wins by knockout and is facing a striker with a leaky defense who is predictable on offense.
Michael Aswell Jr. is tough, but he’s there to be victimized by Riley’s superior skill set.
Aswell might end up walking into something big that sets up the finish at some point early on.
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Riley vs Aswell best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+125)
With all the weapons at Riley’s disposal, and Aswell's singular path to victory, this fight going into the third round is a hard ask.
Either Riley picks Aswell apart early on, or the American finds a big shot out of nowhere to put the undefeated prospect down.
This should be a fast-paced fight between two athletic strikers from the beginning. I don’t see it going the distance, so my best bet is that the fight goes Under 2.5 rounds.
Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Riley | Aswell |
| To win outright | -260 | +205 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +175 | +475 |
| To win by decision | +140 | +575 |
| To win by submission | +2250 | +2000 |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 -160 |
Under 2.5 +125 |
Odds as of 3-20.
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Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell tale of the tape
| Riley | Aswell | |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Age | 25 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| Featherweight | Weight Class | Featherweight |
| 69 inches | Reach | 69 inches |
| 12-0 | Record | 11-3 |
| 9 | Wins by KO | 6 |
| 0 | Wins by submission | 0 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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