Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot Predictions, Picks & Odds

A lightweight bout between Charles Oliveira and Mateusz Gamrot will headline a stacked UFC Fight Night card in Rio de Janeiro this Saturday.

This is expected to be a close fight between a pair of Top 10 lightweights, with UFC odds installing Gamrot as a slim -120 favorite with the former champ Oliveira coming back at -110. 

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot predictions and betting picks for October 11. 

Oliveira vs Gamrot prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Oliveira ML (-105 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Oliveira ML (-105 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Charles "do Bronxs" Oliveira is the former lightweight champion, and he holds the UFC record for most finishes (20), most submission wins (16), and most Performance of the Night bonuses (13).

While he's just 2-3 in his last five fights, those defeats came against the two best pound-for-pound fighters in the world in Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev, and No. 2 lightweight contender Arman Tsarukyan.

Gamrot is 4-1 in his last five, but his resume is less impressive. He lost a split decision to Dan Hooker last year, and he also had a split-decision win against Jalin Turner during that span, where his striking looked awful. 

The biggest concern about Oliveira is he's just four months from getting starched by Topuria. That said, Gamrot doesn't carry much power, so I'm not too worried about Oliveira's chin holding up here.

Gamrot has excellent wrestling, but Oliveira is an elite grappler who's dangerous off his back and can sink in a guillotine when opponents shoot for takedowns. On the feet, Oliveira is faster and hits harder with more weapons.

Gamrot tends to be a points fighter, but grinding out a decision against Oliveira will be tough in Brazil. Meanwhile, Oliveira can win by knockout, submission, or decision. Back the fighter with more paths to victory.

Best bet analysis

The main reason we're seeing such a close line here is because Oliveira has three recent losses. However, he was a +200 or larger underdog in those defeats, and he has won 13-straight fights as a favorite or short dog.

On the other hand, Gamrot has been overvalued by the books over the last few years. He was a -340 fave in his defeat to Hooker while closing at -225 in that close win against Turner and a knockout loss to Dariush.

It's also worth noting that Gamrot took this fight on just 18 days' notice, so he hasn't had a full camp to prepare. The moneyline value on Oliveira is tough to turn down here. 

Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot odds

Method of Victory	Oliveira	Gamrot
To win outright	-105	-110
To win by KO/TKO	+365	+550
To win by decision	+600	+300
To win by submission	+335	+440
Draw	+3000	+3000

Odds as of 10-11.

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Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot tale of the tape

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