Umar Nurmagomedov vs Raoni Barcelos is the final fight on the prelims for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday.
This is the most lopsided matchup of the evening with UFC betting odds opening Nurmagomedov as a -500 favorite before moving to as high as -1,000. Does the veteran Barcelos have what it takes to pull off the massive upset as a +500 underdog or will the Nurmagomedov family keep rolling?
I let you know with my best free Nurmagomedov vs Barcelos picks and predictions for January 14 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Nurmagomedov vs Barcelos fight odds
Nurmagomedov vs Barcelos method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Umar Nurmagomedov | Raoni Barcelos |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +750 | +1,300 |
| To win by Points | -170 | +1,000 |
| To win by Submission | +320 | +2,600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on January 14, 2022.
Nurmagomedov vs Barcelos picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Nurmagomedov vs Barcelos betting preview
Umar Nurmagomedov has a perfect 15-0 record including three-straight wins in the UFC. In his first two bouts inside the octagon, he submitted Sergey Morozov and Brian Kelleher, and in his last time out in June, he defeated Nate Maness by unanimous decision.
It was another dominant performance from Nurmagomedov who had a 74-2 edge in significant strikes and controlled Maness for more than 10 minutes. The cousin of former UFC lightweight champion Khabib and the brother of current Bellator champ Usman, the 26-year-old Umar is the No. 11 ranked bantamweight contender.
Like other members of his family, Umar is a dominant wrestler with relentless takedowns, excellent conditioning, and high-end submissions. That said, he's also a fluid striker who moves well and is very dangerous with his kicks.
Raoni Barcelos is also coming off a dominant decision win after destroying Trevin Jones in October. Barcelos had a 73-11 advantage in significant strikes and more than seven minutes of control time against Jones.
That allowed Barcelos to bounce back from consecutive decision losses to Victor Henry and Timur Valiev. Before that highly-competitive defeat to Valiev, Barcelos had been on a nine-fight winning streak and had won his first five fights in the UFC.
The 35-year-old is a well-rounded fighter that combines formidable BJJ and crisp Muay Thai ability with a wrestling background.
Nurmagomedov vs Barcelos tale of the tape
| Umar Nurmagomedov | Raoni Barcelos | |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Age | 35 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-7 |
| 135 lbs | Weight | 135 lbs |
| 69 inches | Reach | 67 inches |
| 15-0 (1 KO) | Record | 17-3 (8 KOs |
Nurmagomedov vs Barcelos UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov
This line is a bit disrespectful to Barcelos but it's tough to see him having much success here. He's past his prime and is facing a young buzzsaw in Nurmagomedov who is stronger, faster, and a bit more polished across the board.
With Umar installed as a 10:1 favorite, it isn't exactly a surprise that I'm backing him to win but there's much better value out there than taking him on the moneyline.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov moneyline (-700 at bet365)
Best bet: Nurmagomedov by decision
Nurmagomedov has won four of his last six fights by way of submission, but before that span, his previous five fights had all gone the distance. There are levels to grappling and Nurmagomedov should be a bit better than Barcelos in that area, but the Brazilian won't be a pushover on the mat.
Keep in mind that Barcelos is a five-time Brazilian wrestling champion. He hasn't been taken down since his UFC debut in 2018 and he boasts an impressive 93% takedown defense.
Sure, it's unlikely that he'll be able to shut down Nurmagomedov's wrestling completely but he also isn't likely to get dominated in the grappling exchanges. Look for Barcelos to do enough to make it to the final bell, but ultimately lose on points to the better fighter.
Pick: Nurmagomedov by decision (-163 at bet365)
