Elves Brener vs Esteban Ribovics Predictions, Picks & Odds

The UFC APEX hosts Saturday's Fight Night event in Las Vegas, and the main card features a lightweight bout between Elves Brener and Esteban Ribovics, which should be the most entertaining fight of the evening.

Current UFC odds list Ribovics as a large favorite at -260 via BET99, while Brener is priced at +200. Here are my free UFC Fight Night: Brener vs. Ribovics predictions for Saturday, August 2.

Brener vs Ribovics prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Ribovics moneyline (-260 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Ribovics by decision (+155 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Esteban Ribovics is a rightful -260 favorite against Elves Brener. A technically sharp and high-volume boxer, Ribovics holds a clear striking advantage for three rounds.

While Brener has made a name for himself by outlasting more skilled opponents with sheer grit, Ribovics matches that toughness while also bringing superior technique. It’s a good time to buy low on Ribovics, who is coming off a loss to Nasrat Haqparast.

It was a close fight, but nine of 11 media outlets scored in Ribovics' favor. That performance speaks to both his durability and the level of competition he can hang with.

Brener’s greatest asset, his ability to absorb damage and keep pressing forward, is neutralized against someone as unrelenting and tough as Ribovics. In addition, Brener’s defensive liabilities, namely relying on his chin instead of head movement, will make it difficult to win rounds against Ribovics’ constant output.

Best bet analysis
With sharper skills, equal grit, and better cardio, Ribovics is set up to win a war of attrition on the feet. That’s why the real betting value lies in Ribovics to win by decision at +155 rather than taking his steep -260 moneyline. 

Ribovics doesn’t carry the same physical size or finishing power as Joel Alvarez, who became the first man to stop Brener. Alvarez now fights at 170 pounds, and that size differential is why I am dubious about Brener getting finished once again.

This fight is projected to be a 15-minute banger, and while Brener is incredibly durable, that same durability often results in opponents piling up points rather than finding finishes. Brener’s porous defense will allow Ribovics to win clear rounds in the eyes of the judges.

Given how tough both guys are, a Ribovics decision win feels like the most probable, and profitable, outcome.

Elves Brener vs Esteban Ribovics odds

Method of Victory	Brener	Ribovics
To win outright	+200	-260
To win by KO/TKO	+1450	+170
To win by decision	+500	+155
To win by submission	+625	+1550
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 8-2.

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Elves Brener vs Esteban Ribovics tale of the tape

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