Mateusz Rebecki vs Chris Duncan Predictions, Picks & Odds

Rising lightweights Chris Duncan and Mateusz Rebecki aim to break into mainline contention in the co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card. 

Duncan comes into the fight with physical advantages, but Rebecki’s skill and experience may carry the fight.

Rebecki is the -215 favorite in the UFC odds over the +170 underdog Duncan. Here are my Duncan vs. Rebecki predictions and free betting picks from Las Vegas. 

Rebecki vs Duncan prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Rebecki moneyline (-215 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Rebecki by submission (+725 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Chris Duncan and Mateusz Rebecki have compiled lengthy résumés and are consistently entertaining to watch, but in a stacked lightweight division filled with elite names, they can easily get lost in the shuffle.

Both bring exciting styles and are skilled in both striking and grappling, setting the stage for a competitive bout that should deliver action from the opening bell.

Though both men are known for their striking, Rebecki has proven to be the more well-rounded fighter and has faced higher-level competition. However, cardio remains a concern as he’s shown signs of gassing in tightly contested fights.

In his last outing, Rebecki edged past Myktybek Orolbai in a back-and-forth battle, securing a split decision thanks to a crucial knockdown in the final round. The southpaw boasts a 75% takedown accuracy rate and has finished 16 of his 20 career wins inside the distance.

Duncan, meanwhile, brings height and reach advantages. While often labeled a brawler, he’s also a smothering grappler, averaging 4.1 takedowns per fight and winning his last two by submission.

This is a notable step up in competition for Duncan, and despite his physical tools, he’s quite hittable due to his pressure-heavy style. His two UFC losses came by finish, including a submission loss to Manuel Torres, and his takedown defense has been increasingly exposed.

All signs point to Rebecki being the more complete fighter. He holds advantages in technical striking, takedown precision, and overall experience.

While Duncan may have moments if Rebecki fades, there’s too large a skill gap to confidently back the underdog. Rebecki is the pick.

Best bet analysis
Duncan has been taken down five times in his last three fights, and Rebecki’s 75% takedown accuracy and seven submission wins make this a dangerous matchup for him. Duncan may try to force the grappling to tire Rebecki out, but one mistimed shot could leave him vulnerable.

If Rebecki ends up in top control, it won’t take long for him to work toward a finish. Rebecki by submission is my best bet.

Mateusz Rebecki vs Chris Duncan odds

Method of Victory	Rebecki	Duncan
To win outright	-215	+170
To win by KO/TKO	+180	+575
To win by decision	+235	+450
To win by submission	+725	+1100
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 8-2.

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Mateusz Rebecki vs Chris Duncan tale of the tape

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