Belal Muhammad vs Ian Machado Garry Predictions, Picks & Odds

Former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad faces off against Ian Machado Garry in a fight that will have major implications in the welterweight division in 2026, and is also the co-main event of this weekend’s excellent UFC Fight Night card.

The current UFC odds have Garry as a -270 favorite while Muhammad is a +200 underdog. 

Here are my free UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Machado Garry picks and predictions from Qatar.

Muhammad vs Garry prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Garry moneyline (-270 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Fight will go the distance (-300 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Belal Muhammad rarely gets it easy, and his first fight back after losing the welterweight title is another brutal assignment. Ian Machado Garry is nearly a decade younger and flashing elite technical skill on the feet and on the mat. Still, this isn’t a setup for Muhammad to fail. Garry might be one win away from a 2026 title shot against Islam Makhachev, but Muhammad can pull this off and earn another shot at the title.

One thing we learned in his title loss to Jack Della Maddalena is that Muhammad’s wrestling-heavy approach no longer guarantees control. Muhammad couldn’t establish top control long enough before Maddalena was able to get on his feet, and the fight was essentially over for all purposes. Muhammad’s striking works best against wrestlers who can’t match his pace, and while he remains a high-output grinder, not against crisp strikers who can avoid the mat.

Even at 37, Muhammad is still one of the premier wrestlers in the division, and Garry would be unwise to treat the grappling lightly. But Garry’s recent track record shows he understands where his advantages lie. His loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov pushed him to tighten his defensive reads and become more measured in his offense. Since then, he’s rattled off two very different but equally impressive wins: a gritty one over Michael “Venom” Page, where he lost the striking battle but won the fight with his grappling, and just recently dominated new welterweight darling Carlos Prates.

Garry’s striking is high-IQ, risk-averse, and built around fundamentals rather than flash. He rarely overcommits, has solid footwork, and has strong grappling defense. His composure and efficiency in scrambles benefit him against the former champ. The fight comes down to whether Muhammad can consistently drag Garry into his grinding game and slow the fight into a clinch-and-cage control battle. 

Garry’s movement, footwork, and defensive wrestling make that in a three-round fight. If Garry maintains separation and keeps off the ground, he should have this in the bag. I don’t want to close the door on Muhammad outright, but in a competitive fight, Garry is my pick.

Best bet analysis
Garry has the better striking and defensive tools to stay upright. Muhammad is tough and has excellent conditioning, and both fighters are historically durable. My best bet for the fight is that this fight goes the full distance.

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Belal Muhammad vs Ian Machado Garry odds

Method of Victory	Muhammad	Garry
To win outright	+200	-270
To win by KO/TKO	+1550	+510
To win by decision	+335	-125
To win by submission	+1000	+900
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 11-19.

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Belal Muhammad vs Ian Machado Garry tale of the tape

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