Marlon Vera vs. Cory Sandhagen is the main event for UFC Fight Night, tonight from the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas.
This should be an entertaining fight between a pair of Top 5 bantamweights that love to stand and strike. UFC odds opened Sandhagen as a -163 favorite with Vera coming back at +137. Vera has been in the UFC for a decade, and a win against a former title challenger in Sandhagen will get him one step closer to the belt.
Here are my best free picks and predictions for UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen on March 25.
Marlon Vera vs Cory Sandhagen fight odds
Marlon Vera vs Cory Sandhagen method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Marlon Vera | Cory Sandhagen |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +430 | +550 |
| To win by Points | +550 | +120 |
| To win by Submission | +600 | +1,100 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on March 23, 2023.
Marlon Vera vs Cory Sandhagen picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Marlon Vera vs Cory Sandhagen betting preview
Marlon "Chito" Vera is the No. 3 ranked bantamweight contender and is riding a four-fight winning streak, with each of those bouts earning a Fight of the Night or Performance of the Night bonus.
In his previous bout, he knocked down former champ Dominick Cruz twice before finishing him with a head kick in the fourth round.
Despite being just 30 years old, Chito has fought 20 times in the octagon and owns the promotion record for the most stoppage victories in bantamweight history (10).
Vera is a slick kickboxer with lots of power in his hands, and he also has dangerous grappling with eight career wins by way of submission.
Cory "The Sandman" Sandhagen is at No. 5 in the bantamweight rankings and he's also coming off a fourth-round knockout victory after defeating Song Yadong last September. Sandhagen controlled Yadong for almost four minutes on the mat, holding a 94-52 edge in significant strikes which opened up a gash that led to an early stoppage.
That victory snapped a two-fight skid for Sandhagen, but since those defeats were close bouts against elite bantamweights in Petr Yan and T.J. Dillashaw, it's fair to say his stock hasn't dropped.
The 30-year-old is a long and athletic fighter that combines terrific footwork with dynamic striking from every angle. Although he doesn't have the best offensive wrestling he is capable on the mat with dangerous ground-and-pound ability.
Marlon Vera vs Cory Sandhagen tale of the tape
| Marlon Vera | Cory Sandhagen | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 30 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| 135 lbs | Weight | 135 lbs |
| 70.5 inches | Reach | 69.5 inches |
| 20-7-1 (8 KO) | Record | 15-4 (7 KO) |
Marlon Vera vs Cory Sandhagen UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Sandhagen
Chito has immense power for this division, boasting a whopping six knockdowns over his last two fights against Cruz and Rob Font. That said, he was badly outstruck in terms of volume in both fights and needed to land the more damaging shots to pull off the victory.
His own output can be uneven at times and he tends to be a slow starter, meaning he often loses the first couple of rounds. If that's the case, he's going to have to either be perfect in the final three rounds or finish Sandhagen if he wants the W.
That's easier said than done because Sandhagen has been stopped inside the distance just once in his career (submitted by current champ Aljamain Sterling) and managed to go the full 25 minutes in competitive bouts against Yan and Dillashaw.
As dangerous as Vera is as a kickboxer, he isn't any more technical than Yan and Dillashaw when it comes to striking. Sandhagen's footwork makes him significantly tougher to light up than a past-his-prime Cruz or Font, which means Sandman should be able to get up on the scorecards and pull off the victory.
Prediction: Sandhagen ML (-163 at bet365)
Fight best bet: Pick
You don't get a nickname like "Sandman" without having the ability to put people to sleep. However, Sandhagen doesn't typically display one-hitter-quitter kind of power and hasn't had an easy time finishing his tougher opponents.
Although he picked up a TKO against Song, it came at the end of the fourth round due to a doctor's stoppage, and he went the distance against Yan, Dillashaw, and John Lineker.
Vera has never been finished in his MMA career and has never even been knocked down. That's due to his granite chin but also his high guard which protects his head.
Sandhagen has a diverse striking arsenal and will be able to attack the body, but that seldom leads to KO victories. Back him to win by points instead which you can get at plus money.
Pick: Sandhagen by decision (+125 at bet365)
