Magny vs Neal UFC Fight Night Picks: Handz of Steel Too Heavy for Magny?

Geoff Neal's seven-fight win streak came to an end in December, but he'll be looking to rebound against Neil Magny.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
May 6, 2021 • 15:18 ET
Geoff Neal UFC Welterweight
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Neil Magny vs. Geoff Neal is on the main card for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, May 8 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. 

The battle of the Nei(a)ls might be the best fight at the event, as two Top-10 welterweights collide as they attempt to bounce back from losses. UFC betting lines have Neal installed as a -194 favorite while Magny comes back at +156. 

We bring you our best free Magny vs. Neal picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night on Saturday, May 8.

Magny vs Neal fight odds

Method of Victory Neil Magny Geoff Neal
Win Outright +156 -194
Win by KO/TKO +950 +195
Win by Points +250 +220
Win by Submission +1,800 +1,500
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Magny vs Neal betting preview

The "Haitian Sensation" Neil Magny is No. 9 in the welterweight rankings, and is fresh off a loss to Michael Chiesa in January where he was dominated on the ground. Prior to that defeat, he had won three fights in a row, with each victory coming by decision.

The 33-year-old has fought 24 times in the octagon since making his UFC debut in 2013, compiling a 17-7 record with the promotion. Magny is a long and rangy fighter who combines high-volume striking with good clinch work and solid grappling ability.

Geoff "Handz of Steel" Neal is the No. 10 ranked welterweight and is also coming off a decision loss, with his defeat coming against Stephen Thompson in December. Before that loss, Neal had reeled off seven straight wins – including five inside the octagon. 

Neal is a high-pressure striker with explosive power in his hands and feet. Seven of his last eight wins have come by way of knockout. 

Magny vs Neal tale of the tape

Neil Magny   Geoff Neal
33 Age 30
6-foot-3 Height 5-foot-11
170 lbs Weight 170 lbs
80 inches Reach 75 inches
24-9 Record 13-3

Magny vs Neal UFC prediction and betting pick

PREDICTION: Neal by KO/TKO or Points (-180) - The path to victory for Magny would be to use his grappling and clinch work to wear on Neal for 15 minutes.

However, Neal has excellent takedown defense and, as he showed in his unanimous decision victory over Belal Muhammed two years ago, he is more than capable of winning those drag-out bouts. 

While Magny is a well-rounded fighter, he has struggled against specialists in the past and Neal is a striking specialist who combines excellent technique with accuracy and knockout power. Look for that to make a difference when Neal utilizes his defense to make this fight a stand-up affair. 

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Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez. You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports. Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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