Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday.
Luque is the No. 10-ranked welterweight and will try to snap a two-fight skid but it won't be easy against a highly-experienced veteran like dos Anjos. Oddsmakers expect a close bout with UFC odds currently installing dos Anjos as a slim -120 favorite and Luque coming back at +100.
Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. dos Anjos betting picks for August 12 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Luque vs dos Anjos fight odds
Luque vs dos Anjos method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Vicente Luque | Rafael dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +320 | +700 |
| To win by points | +550 | +230 |
| To win by submission | +500 | +460 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of August 9, 2023.
Luque vs dos Anjos picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Luque vs dos Anjos betting preview
Vicente "The Silent Assassin" Luque is coming off a loss to Geoff Neal last August. He ate 121 significant strikes in that fight and was knocked down twice, eventually getting starched in the third round.
That marked the second straight defeat for Luque who had previously lost to Belal Muhammed in a bout where he had a 84-60 edge in significant strikes but was taken down five times and was controlled on the mat for more than seven minutes.
Prior to this skid, Luque had won four consecutive fights, picking up three Performance of the Night bonuses during that span. Luque is a violent fighter who loves to mix it up and combines strong boxing with ferocious power. He also has good grappling ability with a black belt in BJJ and eight career victories by way of submission.
Rafael dos Anjos is coming off a second-round submission victory against Bryan Barbarena last December. The former lightweight champ, dos Anjos moved up to welterweight in 2017 but after going 4-4 in that division, he went back down to 155 pounds.
After picking up back-to-back decision victories in that division, he was knocked out by Rafael Fiziev last summer and moved back up to welterweight for the Barbarena fight.
RDA is a very well-rounded and highly technical fighter who combines volume striking with solid wrestling and high-end BJJ skills.
Luque vs dos Anjos tale of the tape
| Vicente Luque | Rafael dos Anjos | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 38 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| 170 lbs | Weight | 170 lbs |
| 75.5 inches | Reach | 70 inches |
| 21-9 (11 KOs) | Record | 32-14 (5 KOs) |
Luque vs dos Anjos UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Rafael dos Anjos ML
dos Anjos is an extremely technical fighter but he hasn't looked great at welterweight against fighters who have better physical attributes. Luque is bigger, stronger, and younger than RDA while also boasting a six-inch reach advantage.
That said, I'm extremely concerned about the brain hemorrhage that Luque suffered in his previous fight against Neal. Despite being medically cleared by doctors, injuries like that can have long-term ramifications and even if it's psychological, he could find himself shifting away from the aggressive style that brought him success.
Luque has typically displayed poor striking defense and has been willing to take a hit in order to give one. Coming off that brain injury, that's more than a little worrisome, especially against a southpaw like dos Anjos.
Neal, Stephen Thompson, and Leon Edwards all picked him apart out of the southpaw stance, and even in his knockout win against the left-handed Barbarena in 2019, he was outstruck 169-163.
With dos Anjos also boasting the wrestling advantage and being more experienced in five-round main events, back him on the moneyline.
Prediction: Rafael dos Anjos moneyline (-118 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Rafael dos Anjos ML
dos Anjos opened as a -150 favorite for this bout but money has come in on Luque, shortening his line to as low as -118. That puts plenty of betting value on dos Anjos, who has still looked sharp in recent bouts despite his advanced age.
Despite being 38 years old, dos Anjos is 3-1 in his last four fights. And while he was knocked out by Fiziev, that was a very competitive fight until the No. 6-ranked lightweight caught him in the fifth round.
Luque, on the other hand, is coming off back-to-back lopsided defeats where he was stifled by Belal Muhammed's wrestling and battered by Neal. Even though he's seven years younger than dos Anjos, he's been in some absolute wars and has taken plenty of damage in his career.
With too many questions surrounding Luque, I'll gladly take dos Anjos at close to a pick'em price.
Pick: Rafael dos Anjos moneyline (-118 at DraftKings)
