Alexander Volkanovski makes his seventh featherweight title defense in a rematch against Diego Lopes at UFC 325 in Sydney, Australia.
Volkanovski outclassed Lopes to regain the belt last April and UFC odds have him installed as a -150 favorite to win again.
See why I’m betting on a different result in my UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, February 1.
Volkanovski vs Lopes prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Lopes moneyline (+125 at BET99)
- My best bet: Lopes by KO/TKO or Submission (+210 at BET99)
Fight analysis
While the first fight wasn’t close enough to warrant an immediate rematch, Diego Lopes earned another title shot by knocking out Jean Silva in September.
The biggest question entering that previous bout was whether Volkanovski’s chin was compromised after back-to-back KO losses to Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev.
Although Volkanovski had a 158–63 edge in significant strikes, Lopes landed the heavier shots. Volk was dropped late in the second round and had his face busted up in Round 4.
Generally, rematches don’t play out the same way. Fighters make adjustments and there’s less of a feeling-out process due to familiarity. Lopes seemed to pace himself for five rounds last year, but should come out guns blazing with constant pressure this time around.
With Volk another year older and Lopes adding an impressive win to his resume, I’m leaning toward the younger fighter at plus money.
Best bet analysis
Lopes’ technique is sloppy, and he doesn’t have Volkanovski’s skill or striking accuracy. He’s unlikely to win a decision but he owns most of the finishing upside in this matchup — especially given his iron chin and the punishment Volk has absorbed over the course of his career.
That makes Lopes to win inside the distance at +210 the value play.
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Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Volkanovski | Lopes |
| To win outright | -145 | +125 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +400 | +350 |
| To win by decision | +160 | +550 |
| To win by submission | +1050 | +640 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 1-31.
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Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes tale of the tape
| Volkanovski | Lopes | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-6 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| Featherweight | Weight Class | Featherweight |
| 71.5 inches | Reach | 72.5 inches |
| 27-4 | Record | 27-7 |
| 13 | Wins by KO | 11 |
| 3 | Wins by submission | 12 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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