Nate Landwehr vs. Austin Lingo is scheduled for three rounds in the featherweight division as a featured attraction on tonight’s UFC Fight Night card at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas.
Landwehr hopes to break into the featherweight rankings, and he’ll have to do that in front of a hostile crowd rooting for Dallas native Lingo.
UFC odds have Landwehr as a -225 favorite. Lingo comes in for the injured Alex Caceres and hopes to score a win as a +190 underdog.
Check out my free betting picks for Landwehr vs. Lingo at UFC Fight Night in San Antonio.
Landwehr vs Lingo fight odds
Landwehr vs Lingo method of victory odds
|Method of Victory||Nate Landwehr||Austin Lingo|
|To win by KO/TKO||+190||+380|
|To win by Points||+220||+600|
|To win by Submission||+900||+1600|
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on March 23, 2023.
Landwehr vs Lingo picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Landwehr vs Lingo betting preview
It will be nearly 600 days since Lingo stepped inside an octagon. While he was supposed to face Ricardo Ramos a few weeks back — a fight he was also an underdog — this is a big ask for the Texan. Landwehr comes into this fight after his barbaric war with David Onama with questions about how his chin will hold up against another aggressive striker.
Nate “The Train” displayed incredible resiliency after Onama had him out. He stormed back to capture a majority decision in one of the best fights of 2022. While he was going to have a tricky opponent initially with Caceres, he now has a grittier one with Lingo.
All the same, Landwehr will need to rely on a multifaceted attack to win. He lands 6.37 significant strikes per minute at 51% accuracy and scores 1.3 takedowns per 15 minutes with 1.3 submission attempts in the same time frame. Landwehr can get caught up in exchanges, so he should rely on his wrestling to avoid any unnecessary punishment.
Lingo is an entirely different opponent for Landwehr than Caceres, and he’ll have a home crowd cheering him on. After a strong run on LFA, Lingo’s transition to the UFC has been plagued by inactivity and injury. He’s 2-1 since joining the promotion with his last win coming against Luis Saldana in 2021.
He’s a strong striker and he’ll have to keep the fight standing to test Landwehr’s chin. The Dallas native lands 4.0 significant strikes per minute at 42% accuracy, and an 80% takedown defense accuracy should discourage Landwehr from wantonly shooting in. How he addresses the ring rust is hard to determine, but he is dangerous if Landwehr wants to brawl.
Landwehr should reacclimate Lingo to the UFC and make him uncomfortable with his wrestling. This is a big ask for a fighter who has been out for so long in Lingo, but he's got nothing to lose. The line keeps moving closer as we approach fight night, so there could be a chance of an upset in the Lone Star State.
Landwehr vs Lingo tale of the tape
|Nate Landwehr||Austin Lingo|
|34 years old||Age||28 years old|
|145 lbs||Weight||145 lbs|
|72 inches||Reach||70 inches|
|16-4 (8 KOs)||Record||9-1 (3 KOs)|
Landwehr vs Lingo UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Landwehr ML
Even though Lingo is a late substitute with a different style, he’s a generic brawler type. While watching Landwehr having an out-of-body experience against Onama gives anyone doubt about his chin, his recovery is what mattered.
With Lingo being a one-note fighter, and not looking as efficient in his three UFC fights as he did in the regional circuit, Landwehr has a huge advantage in experience. This fight could get dusty early on. Lingo's window for victory closes shut if he can't stop Landwehr in the first round. That said, the line continues to drop for Landwehr.
We’ll take Landwehr to win in a decent scrap.
Prediction: Landwehr moneyline (-225 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Pick
All three of Landwehr’s wins in the UFC came either by decision or in Round 3, while Lingo’s fights have all gone the distance.
Unless Lingo is rusty and vulnerable for takedowns, he’s durable enough to go the rounds. Landwehr’s chin is a liability, though he can make defensive adjustments on the fly.
If the fight doesn’t end in the first, it might go all the way. We’ll take the fight going Over 2.5 rounds at +100 as our best bet for this fight.
Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (+100 at DraftKings)