Josh Parisian vs. Jamal Pogues is scheduled for three rounds in the heavyweight division and is a featured attraction of the UFC Fight Night undercard from The Apex in Las Vegas.
Pogues is a promising heavyweight to watch, and he’s about to be put through the paces against Parisian.
UFC odds have Pogues as a -245 favorite ahead of the toughest fight of his career thus far. Parisian is 3-2 in his last five, yet comes into this fight a +205 underdog.
Here are our picks and predictions for Parisian vs. Pogues at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas.
Josh Parisian vs Jamal Pogues fight odds
Josh Parisian vs Jamal Pogues method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Josh Parisian | Jamal Pogues |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +600 | +230 |
| To win by Points | +500 | +170 |
| To win by Submission | +1,600 | +600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on February 16, 2023.
Josh Parisian vs Jamal Pogues picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Josh Parisian vs Jamal Pogues betting preview
This bout of Contender Series beneficiaries might not be a technical marvel of a fight, but figures to be competitive. Jamal Pogues' official UFC debut comes against Parisian, who is struggling to find consistency since getting his ticket to the UFC back in 2020. There is concern however on if Parisian is over some health issues that saw his previous fight canceled.
Pogues is undersized for a heavyweight, but he is deceptively fast and has ways of getting people on the canvas. Though he doesn’t have much striking power, he can move his hands and has good conditioning. He’s been on the regional circuit with varied success — often falling short when he’s tried his luck on bigger stages — though he might have finally gotten it together ahead of his UFC debut.
The “Stormtrooper” is hoping to shine against a fighter desperate for a win. Based on his two fights through the Contender Series, he’s landing 3.93 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy and scores 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes at 53% accuracy. Overall, Pogues has five finishes in nine victories and hasn’t scored a win inside the distance in four years.
Problems surround Josh Parisian, who pulled out of a bout with Chase Sherman due to heart palpitations last November. He’s been given the green light to compete, and he’s going to go up against an opponent who is going to test his endurance. Parisian is a busy fighter who will have notable advantages in physical size and power, but how he’ll react physically is anyone’s guess.
He’ll need to bring 100% of what he has to go on his first winning streak in the UFC. He lands 4.97 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy and scores 1.06 takedowns per 15 minutes at 30% accuracy. The busy striking style has resulted in 13 finishes in 15 victories with an average fight time of 9:27 minutes.
Conventional wisdom would side with Parisian beating a smaller, inexperienced opponent, but the odds are shifting more towards Pogues as we near the weekend.
Josh Parisian vs Jamal Pogues tale of the tape
| Josh Parisian | Jamal Pogues | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 27 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| 265 lbs | Weight | 248 lbs |
| 79 inches | Reach | 77 inches |
| 15-5 (11 KO) | Record | 9-3 (4 KO) |
Josh Parisian vs Jamal Pogues UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Pogues
Both men tend to absorb more shots than they land, but Pogues has a ground game that gives him an extra dimension to his offense. Parisian also struggles against takedowns, only defending 42% of attempts, and was dumped on the mat multiple times in his last two losses. If Pogues can use his speed to get Parisian off balance, he can get him on the ground and burn out the clock.
This fight could get sloppy. Pogues isn’t a particularly dynamic fighter, but his versatility and groundwork give him an edge over his opponent who may not be 100% ready. If Pogues has the goods, he should rise to the occasion here with a win.
Being that Parisian has never won back-to-back fights since joining the UFC, and is susceptible to Pogues’ wrestling, he’s due for another loss. The moneyline keeps climbing for Pogues, but we’re picking him at a decent -245.
Prediction: Pogues moneyline (-245 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Pogues by decision
Neither fighter strikes with lights-out power, and each has a style that consumes the clock. Pogues likes to fish for takedowns and wrestle, whereas Parisian is a volume striker. While Pogues' athleticism and wrestling are enough to give him the win, Parisian has more experience and could get off to a hot start.
Pogues should be able to gauge his distance, pump his jab and work some takedowns in after some chippy moments in the first round.
Parisian’s lack of consistency and Pogues’ lack of stopping power makes this a distance fight, and we’re going with Pogues to secure a decision win.
Pick: Pogues by decision (+100 at DraftKings)
