Erin Blanchfield takes on Talia Santos in a fight with potential title implications as a premier undercard matchup on the UFC Fight Night card this Saturday, August 26, from Singapore.
Blanchfield has been crowned by the fans as a future champion in the making, and there is no better litmus test of her potential than the hard-hitting Santos.
UFC odds have Blanchfield as a narrow favorite at -148, and Santos is a +124 underdog.
Here are my free picks for UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Santos from Singapore.
Erin Blanchfield vs Talia Santos fight odds
Erin Blanchfield vs Talia Santos method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Erin Blanchfield | Talia Santos |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +1,200 | +1,100 |
| To win by points | +155 | +190 |
| To win by submission | +440 | +1,200 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on August 25, 2023.
Erin Blanchfield vs Talia Santos picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Erin Blanchfield vs Talia Santos betting preview
There’s no denying that Erin Blanchfield is a special fighter. After she dog-walked Jessica Andrade in her last fight, it’s easy to imagine that she would be shot into a title fight sooner rather than later. For what it’s worth, this might be the next best thing as Santos arguably came out on the wrong end of a bad decision against then-champion Valentina Shevchenko.
This is not going to be an easy fight for her, and she’ll show her merit as an elite contender with a win.
Blanchfield is at her best when she’s grappling, but she is developing into a troublesome striker. Her numbers are incredible, with 6.06 significant strikes per minute and 3.76 takedowns per 15 minutes.
What Blanchfield does best is swarm forward, using her strikes to set up her takedown game where she’ll aggressively hunt for a submission, her method of victory in her last three fights.
Talia Santos has been competing at a higher level longer than Blanchfield and has proven her worth against tough opposition. Her wins against Roxanne Modafferi and Joanne Wood and the near-miss against Shevchenko have shown her to be tough in all areas. If Santos can keep Blanchfield standing, then she might be able to teach the young gun a lesson.
She was able to ground Shevchenko for the majority of their fight, and her respectable power gave her an edge in the striking department. Santos not only has a higher takedown success rate than Blanchfield at 88%, but she’s done it against sterner opposition. Furthermore, her heavy hands have carried her to 10 knockouts in 19 wins.
Erin Blanchfield vs Talia Santos tale of the tape
| Erin Blanchfield | Talia Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Age | 30 |
| 5-foot-4 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
| 125 lbs | Weight | 125 lbs |
| 68 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 11-1 (2 KO) | Record | 19-2 (10 KO) |
Erin Blanchfield vs Talia Santos UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Blanchfield moneyline
Even if you heavily endorse Blanchfield’s potential, this fight is close enough to make her most ardent fans nervous. On paper, Blanchfield has the tools necessary to outpace Santos, but that can go out the window if Santos neutralizes her ground game.
If this fight stays standing, the momentum can shift to the craftier and stronger Santos. Both fighters possess excellent takedown defense and are dangerous on the ground, but I’d have to give Blanchfield the benefit of the doubt on the mat.
Ultimately, Blanchfield’s striking opens up her ground game better than that of Santos. That activity and confidence could result in her scoring a critical takedown, which might decide the fight.
While Santos was able to expose Shevchenko’s decline, which would cumulate in her loss to Alexa Grasso in her next fight, she’s facing a surging fighter who may not even be in her prime.
This is a close one, and it is every bit of a toss-up as the odds indicate. That said, I’m picking Blanchfield.
Prediction: Blanchfield moneyline (-148 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Fight to go the distance
When fights like this could feasibly go either way, I’m hesitant to pick anything outside of the rounds. Both women have only lost by decision, and neither has shown deficiencies in their chins or is susceptible to submission attempts. Blanchfield is the better finisher of the two, but again, Santos has been up against better fighters.
With Blanchfield’s average fight time clocking in at a little under 10 minutes, and Santos going the distance in all but one of her fights since 2018, I feel the safe bet is figuring this goes to the scorecards. This could be an even fight up until the very end.
If Blanchfield gets her takedowns stuffed and has to rely on her striking activity, Santos might have her number in that department. Then again, Blanchfield might rise to the occasion and find an opening to get Santos on the mat. Either way, this feels like it will end up a 29-28 split-decision-type fight.
The best bet is the safe bet, and that’s the fight going the distance at -250.
Pick: Fight to go the distance (-250 at DraftKings)
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