Sean Strickland faces off against Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez in the headline event for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.
Strickland is the former middleweight champion but UFC odds have him installed as a +215 underdog against Hernandez who comes back at -290.
Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez predictions and picks for February 21, from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.
Strickland vs Hernandez prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Hernandez ML (-290 at BET99)
- My best bet: Fight to go the Distance (-130 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Both middleweight contenders are high-pressure fighters with elite cardio and tons of UFC experience. The similarities end there since Hernandez is an elite grappler with relentless takedowns while Strickland relies on high-volume boxing.
Generally in striker versus grappler matchups, I lean towards the fighter with the edge on the ground, especially if the kick-boxing specialist lacks power. And while Strickland has good takedown defense, he's never faced somebody like Fluffy who averages a whopping 6.46 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Motivation could also play a factor since Strickland previously held the belt and will possibility never reach the top again after two title losses. Meanwhile, the younger Hernandez is on an 8-fight win streak and is in line for a title shot.
Best bet analysis
Only two of Strickland's last 11 fights have ended inside the distance and those were a knockout win against an unranked Abus Magomedov and KO loss against Alex Pereira. I don't see him finishing Hernandez but I also doubt Fluffy will get a stoppage.
Hernandez has plenty of wins by submission or ground-and-pound but Strickland has an impressive 76% takedown defense. And that number is skewed by Strickland's first fight against Dricus du Plessis when he was taken down six times but controlled for just two minutes.
Strickland's pillow hands and his ability to fight back to his feet, should lead to this bout going the full 25 minutes.
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Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Strickland | Hernandez |
| To win outright | +215 | -290 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +600 | +600 |
| To win by decision | +475 | +135 |
| To win by submission | +3500 | +275 |
| Draw | +3500 | +3500 |
Odds as of 11-18.
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Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez tale of the tape
| Strickland | Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 32 |
| 6-foot-1 | Height | 6-foot |
| Middleweight | Weight Class | Middleweight |
| 76 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 29-7 | Record | 15-2 |
| 11 | Wins by KO | 3 |
| 4 | Wins by submission | 9 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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