UFC Fight Night Dober vs Green Picks and Predictions: King's Fight to Lose

UFC Fight Night from Sin City brings us a lightweight tilt between Drew Dober and Bobby Green on Saturday night. Find out why the betting edge lies with the underdog in our Dober vs. Green betting picks.

Last Updated: Dec 17, 2022 7:33 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Bobby Green UFC
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Drew Dober vs. Bobby Green is scheduled for three rounds in the lightweight division as a featured undercard attraction on the UFC Fight Night card from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Both Dober and Green are among the toughest truthmakers in the UFC, and their clash could very well steal the show.

UFC odds are backing Dober to come out on top at -150, while the always-entertaining Green is a narrow betting dog at +130.

Here are our picks and predictions for Dober vs. Green at UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas.

Dober vs Green fight odds

Dober vs Green method of victory odds

Method of Victory Drew Dober Bobby Green
To win by KO/TKO +230 +900
To win by Points +200 +230
To win by Submission +1,100 +1,700
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on December 16, 2022.

Dober vs Green picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Dober vs Green betting preview

The forecast for this fight calls for blood and guts as these pair of high-volume strikers set to face off. Dober and Green are known to scrap hard, and while Dober has the better record as of late, Green winning wouldn’t be that much of a shock. There won’t be much of a warm-up period as these two hope to stay alive in the crowded lightweight division.

Green is coming off a loss to Islam Makhachev last February, though he is also coming off a six-month suspension from using a banned substance. He took that fight on extremely short notice, beating Nasrat Haqparast just two weeks before. The “King” was on a two-fight winning streak before getting submitted by the current champion.

An athletic and risky striker, Green has fast hands along with excellent conditioning. He averages 5.88 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy and surprisingly absorbs just 3.65 strikes in return at a defense rate of 62%. 18 of Green's 29 wins have come inside the distance with an average fight time of 12:17. 

Dober is coming off a war with Rafael Alves at UFC 277 and is gearing out for another rough night. Though Dober has struggled against elite opposition, he’s a stingy striker who is stubbornly tough. He’s gone 3-2 in his last five and turned in an incredible performance against Alves, which is a big part of why he’s the favorite here.

Dober’s heavy strikes and tenacity make him a must-watch fighter. He averages 4.47 significant strikes per minute at 40% accuracy and is a strong finisher if he feels he has his opponents hurt. All of Dober’s last five wins have come by KO or TKO and have an average fight time of 8:04.

Both Dober and Green can do damage, but their delivery systems are a bit different. Blunt force trauma to the head and body is the way Dober likes to operate, though he will have to contend with Green’s volume. Neither fighter spends much time on the mat, nor do they pursue takedowns, so get ready for what could be the last great fight of 2023.

Dober vs Green tale of the tape

Alex Dober   Bobby Green
34 Age 36
5-foot-8 Height 5-foot-10
155 lbs Weight 155 lbs
70 inches Reach 71 inches
25-11 (12 KO) Record 29-13 (10 KO)

Dober vs Green UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

The going thought is that Dober is a slightly better striker than Green. However, Green’s boxing is fundamentally solid, and he can fight hard for every second of a bout. While the "King" can afford to fall back on his wrestling background, he might not have to with a two-inch height advantage and his footwork. 

Because this fight will stay standing and Dober doesn’t have a built-in option to disrupt Green’s rhythm, an upset looks likely here. As long as Green doesn’t get careless and keeps his hands busy, this is his fight to lose.

Prediction: Green moneyline (+130 at DraftKings)

It has been over a decade since Green scored a stoppage against the nefarious James Krause, no less, and all of his victories since have been on the cards. While Makhachev did put an end to him on the ground, he hasn’t been stopped on his feet since Dustin Poirier did it in 2016, and Dober is nowhere near as proficient as Poirier.

We’re backing Green to score an upset by out-hustling his opponents and winning a decision. You can't go wrong picking Green on the moneyline, but it makes sense to go with a decision at +200.

Pick: Green by decision (+200 at DraftKings)

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