UFC 322 Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates Predictions, Picks & Odds

Former welterweight champion Leon Edwards is in freefall since losing his world title, and rising star Carlos Prates is hoping to regain some momentum after a setback of his own at the expense of the fading champion in one of our featured attractions on the UFC 322 undercard.

Prates is a -190 favorite in the UFC odds, while Edwards is a +150 underdog. Here are my Edwards vs. Prates predictions and free betting picks from New York.

Edwards vs Prates prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Prates moneyline (-170 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (-140 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Though it has only been two fights since Leon Edwards held the UFC welterweight title, it feels far longer.

He looked hapless and faded in conclusive defeats to Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady, unable to get his shots off, and was wrestled into silent submission. The jury is out on whether Edwards is a finished fighter, mostly due to Muhammad and Brady being stylistic nightmares for him, but Carlos Prates is coming in as the truthmaker for this fight.

At his best, Edwards was a disciplined striker who made every moment and movement count. His accuracy, defensive awareness, and ability to control distance made him exceptionally hard to beat in prolonged striking exchanges. While never a one-punch finisher outside of the legendary head kick against Kamaru Usman, Edwards is the kind of fighter who makes it count when he needs to.

His takedown defense held up against almost everyone but the division’s strongest chain wrestlers, and that’s why this matchup should, in theory, favor him stylistically. Prates is not a wrestler and will not force the kind of pressure or positional grappling that has undone Edwards recently.

However, the version of Edwards we’ve seen in his last two fights is struggling to pull the trigger. Against an explosive, aggressive Muay Thai striker like Prates, that’s dangerous.

Prates carries legitimate knockout power, uses his reach well, and thrives when he gets time and space to open up. He’ll likely get that here because Edwards prefers to work from range rather than crowd the pocket. Prates’ 84% takedown defense also suggests that Edwards won’t be able to fall back on wrestling to slow the pace if the striking starts slipping away.

While Prates’ ceiling may not be elite, as Ian Garry made crystal clear in a lopsided loss, there’s more to like with Prates at this point than Edwards. In a three-round fight where activity matters, and Edwards has recently been out-landed in three of his last five, the risk of Edwards letting rounds drift is very real.

If Edwards can turn back the clock now that he has someone who won’t be aggressively wrestling him, he can absolutely make Prates look reckless and predictable. But recent evidence points toward a fighter struggling to commit, while Prates is trending upward and carrying real belief in his offensive identity. Prates is the pick.

Best bet analysis
Prates might have a hard time getting through Edwards’ defense, but his activity and energy will see him outwork the former champion and create the kind of striking deficit that will have Edwards needing to command the kind of fight-ending power he simply doesn’t possess. I do expect Edwards to perform better than his previous two performances, but it should be enough for him to survive.

My best bet is that the fight goes Over 2.5 Rounds. 

Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates odds

Method of Victory	Edwards	Prates
To win outright	+150	-170
To win by KO/TKO	+640	+170
To win by decision	+260	+210
To win by submission	+2000	+2000
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 11-15.

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Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates tale of the tape

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