UFC 321 Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane Predictions, Picks & Odds

Tom Aspinall faces off against Ciryl Gane in the headline event for UFC 321 betting this Saturday.

This is Aspinall's first defense of the undisputed heavyweight championship after he was promoted from the interim title following the retirement of Jon Jones.

Gane has already lost two title challenges and is expected to come up short again, with UFC odds installing him as a +280 underdog, and Aspinall coming back at -360.

Here are my best Aspinall vs. Gane predictions and free betting picks for October 25 from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi.

Aspinall vs Gane prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Aspinall moneyline (-360 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Aspinall by submission (+240 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Aspinall has gone 8-1 in the UFC, with seven of those wins coming in the first round, and the other coming a minute into the second. The lone blemish on his UFC record came against Curtis Blaydes when he suffered a fluke knee injury just 15 seconds into the fight.

He got revenge for that loss by starching Blaydes in the opening round of their rematch in July of 2024. Aspinall hasn't fought since, as he was waiting for a highly-anticipated bout with Jon Jones that never materialized.

Gane is 13-2 in his career, with his defeats coming in title fights against Jones and Francis Ngannou. He's coming off a split-decision win against Alexander Volkov, where 19 of 20 media outlets thought he should have lost.

Both of these heavyweights have elite speed for the division with great footwork. Gane is more effective with his kicks, but Aspinall boasts the superior boxing.

While Gane is a highly-technical kickboxer, he doesn't have the power to put quality foes away early. On the other hand, Aspinall has death-touch power and the shortest average fight time in UFC history (2:02). Not only does Aspinall hit harder, he also has elite BJJ and Gane's biggest weakness is his defensive grappling.

Gane might be able to stay at range and avoid Aspinall's power for longer than the average heavyweight. But at some point in a 25-minute fight, he's going to get cracked or taken down and submitted.

Best bet analysis

With a background in Muay Thai, Gane entered the UFC with a weakness on the mat, and he hasn't upgraded that part of his game. 

In his first title shot, he was taken down four times and controlled for more than eight minutes by Ngannou. And when he faced Jones for the belt in 2023, he was subbed just two minutes into the fight. In his last fight, he was taken down three times by Volkov, who has subpar wrestling.

Aspinall has been knocking out opponents so quickly that it's easy to forget that he also has high-level grappling. He submitted Andrei Arlovski with a rear-naked choke in 2021 before subbing Volkov in the first round the following year.

Gane has good striking defense with excellent distance management so Aspinall could have a tough time landing power punches. If that's the case, expect the champ to rely on his grappling to take Gane down and submit him.

Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane odds

Method of Victory	Aspinall	Gane
To win outright	-360	+280
To win by KO/TKO	-105	+475
To win by decision	+1000	+1550
To win by submission	+240	+1750
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 10-24.

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Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane tale of the tape

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