Kevin Holland faces off against Daniel Rodriguez on the main card for UFC 318 tonight.
Holland is the No. 13-ranked welterweight contender, and UFC odds have him installed as a massive -525 favorite against D-Rod.
See how I'm finding a more reasonable number with my Holland vs. Rodriguez predictions for Saturday, July 19.
Holland vs Rodriguez prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Holland moneyline (-525 at BET99)
- My best bet: Holland by submission or decision (-135 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Kevin Holland is one of the most active fighters in the UFC, as this will be his 14th trip to the octagon since the start of 2022. Since moving back down to welterweight, Holland has won back-to-back fights, outpointing Gunnar Nelson in March before submitting Vicente Luque in June.
Holland has fared significantly better at welterweight, where he's less likely to get bullied by opponents than when he fights at 185. That bodes well for his success in this matchup since he has better physical traits than the 38-year-old Daniel Rodriguez.
Rodriguez is also coming off back-to-back wins, but the veteran has consistently come up short against ranked fighters. He's a solid kickboxer with high volume but lacks Holland's speed and athleticism, and will be at a seven-inch reach disadvantage.
Holland is 7-3-1 against southpaws like Rodriguez in the promotion, with another victory against Geoff Neal on the regional circuit.
His only losses to southpaws came against Marvin Vettori, Derek Brunson, and Reinier de Ridder, who are all middleweights who used their wrestling to overpower him. Rodriguez doesn't have the grappling to implement that game plan, and he'll be at a disadvantage in the stand-up.
With Holland having more paths to victory as well the age and speed advantage, he should be able to pick up his third-straight win here.
Best bet analysis
Oddsmakers think Holland has a good chance of getting the knockout with his KO/TKO prop priced at +200. I'm not convinced, which is why I like this double method prop instead.
Rodriguez is a durable fighter, and he's only been knocked out once in 24 career fights — a TKO loss to Ian Garry, who caught him with a head kick before finishing him with a flurry of follow-up punches. It won't be easy for Holland to finish Rodriguez, who is tougher than a two-dollar steak.
If Holland does get the finish, there's a decent chance that it will come by submission. Holland is significantly better than Rodriguez on the mat, and he has underrated grappling ability, with four of his last six wins coming by way of submission.
Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Holland | Rodriguez |
| To win outright | -525 | +350 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +200 | +875 |
| To win by decision | +185 | +875 |
| To win by submission | +265 | +3500 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 7-19.
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Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez tale of the tape
| Holland | Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 38 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-0 |
| 170 lbs | Weight Class | 170 lbs |
| 81 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 28-13 | Record | 19-5 |
| 14 | Wins by KO | 9 |
| 9 | Wins by submission | 4 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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