UFC 318 Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov Predictions, Picks & Odds

Former middleweight challenger Paulo Costa faces off against Roman Kopylov at UFC 318 tonight.

This is a strange matchup for a PPV co-main event, with Kopylov a fringe Top-15 middleweight and Costa one of the most undeserving ranked fighters on the UFC roster.

That said, this should be a banger between a pair of guys who like to stand and strike. 

UFC odds have Kopylov as a -230 favorite with Costa coming back at +180. See why I'm backing the underdog with my best free Costa vs. Kopylov predictions for Saturday, July 19. 

Costa vs Kopylov prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Costa to win (+180 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Costa moneyline (+180 at BET99)

Fight analysis
It makes sense why oddsmakers are favoring Kopylov, who is 6-1 in his last seven fights and is fresh off a knockout win against Chris Curtis. After all, Costa is just 1-4 in his last five with his only win during that span coming by decision against a 38-year-old Luke Rockhold.

That said, Kopylov has faced a lower caliber of opposition than Costa and has been underwhelming in recent bouts.

Kopylov was subbed by Anthony Hernandez in February of 2024 before beating an unranked Cesar Almeida by split decision last summer. He followed up with that previously mentioned win against Curtis, but that fight was close until he got the TKO at the end of the final round. 

Although Costa is coming off back-to-back losses, he was competitive against Top-5 middleweights. He wobbled Robert Whittaker with a head kick in the first round before taking former champ Sean Strickland to a split decision.

While the split decision was due to a highly controversial scorecard from Dave Tirelli, it was still a solid performance with Costa boasting a big edge in significant strikes through the first two rounds.

Kopylov is a flashy striker with good technical kickboxing. But he can be hitable and has subpar grappling along with a questionable gas tank. That's bad news against Costa, who has tremendous power in his punches and kicks while also boasting underrated BJJ ability. 

Costa throws a vicious body kick, and with Kopylov fighting out of a southpaw stance, that weapon will be able to target the midsection all day. If Costa takes this fight seriously and pressures Kopylov, forcing him onto the back foot, he has the tools to pull off the upset. 

Best bet analysis
Costa has poor fight IQ, and his motivation has been suspect ever since getting embarrassed by Israel Adesanya when he challenged for the belt in 2020. However, if you're looking purely at the skillset and physical attributes of these two fighters, Costa has the edge.

Keep in mind that at one point, Borrachina looked like a future champ, and he's still in peak shape at 34 years old — the same age as Kopylov, who has far less experience against elite foes. That makes Costa the value play at +180. 

Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov odds

Method of Victory	Costa	Kopylov
To win outright	+180	-230
To win by KO/TKO	+500	+280
To win by decision	+525	-105
To win by submission	+1300	+2400
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 7-19.

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Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov tale of the tape

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