UFC 316 is headlined by two title fights as Merab Dvalishvili looks to go 2-0 over Sean O’Malley, and Julianna Pena faces off against the seemingly unstoppable juggernaut that is Kayla Harrison.
With several explosive fights set for the main card, it should be no surprise that the prelims also feature several fights that could steal the show before the pay-per-view payment clears the bank.
Here are my best free betting picks and UFC 316 prelim predictions from New Jersey.
UFC 316 prelim picks and predictions
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro
• Prediction: Muzakanov moneyline (-600)
• Best Bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-160)
Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
• Prediction: Cortes-Acosta moneyline (+120)
• Best Bet: Cortes-Acosta moneyline (+120)
Joshua Van vs. Bruno Silva
• Prediction: Van moneyline (-250)
• Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-170)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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UFC 316 prelim odds and picks
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro fight odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Murzakanov | Ribeiro |
| To win outright | -600 | +400 |
| To win by KO/TKO | -275 | +850 |
| To win by decision | +640 | +1100 |
| To win by submission | +1400 | +1200 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 6-7.
The big-hitting Murzakanov faces a physical challenge, as Ribeiro holds a five-inch height advantage and a stunning 11-inch reach advantage. However, Ribeiro has shown that he struggles under pressure and often surrenders that reach by backing up too easily.
Murzakanov, on the other hand, has scored knockdowns in all five of his UFC bouts, finishing four of them, and has looked excellent against higher-caliber opponents.
Expect Murzakanov to outclass Ribeiro on the feet and potentially use his strong wrestling to mix things up if needed. My best bet is that the fight goes Under 1.5 rounds.
Prediction: Muzakanov moneyline (-600 at BET99)
Best Bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-160 at BET99)
Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Spivac | Cortes-Acosta |
| To win outright | -145 | +115 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +550 | +190 |
| To win by decision | +255 | +600 |
| To win by submission | +335 | +1800 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 6-7.
There’s a case to be made that Cortes-Acosta is being overlooked by oddsmakers.
He’s a better striker and more explosive athlete compared to Spivac, who has been knocked out four times and has mostly thrived against lower-tier heavyweights. While Cortes-Acosta tends to smother his offense by punching into clinch range, which Spivac could exploit, Spivac is plodding on his feet and lacks creativity as a striker.
Cortes-Acosta’s speed and power should allow him to land the better shots, and if he keeps distance and avoids being grounded, he could land a fight-ending blow. The line is climbing for Cortes-Acosta, and my best bet is to pick him straight up.
Prediction: Cortes-Acosta moneyline (+120 at BET99)
Best Bet: Cortes-Acosta moneyline (+120 at BET99)
Joshua Van vs. Bruno Silva fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Van | Silva |
| To win outright | -650 | +425 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +185 | +1150 |
| To win by decision | -115 | +1200 |
| To win by submission | +850 | +2000 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 6-7.
Joshua Van, just 23 years old, continues to impress and now faces a fading Bruno Silva.
Van’s crisp striking is his primary weapon, though he's proven he can get takedowns and control opponents on the ground. Silva remains dangerous with one-shot knockout power, but his increasingly wild style and slowed reactions are liabilities against a faster, sharper opponent.
As long as Van respects Silva’s power and keeps the fight at range, he should break him down with volume and precision. While not the lock as the odds seem to suggest, Van will be better in every aspect of this fight.
Van is the pick, and the fight going Over 2.5 rounds is my best bet.
Prediction: Van moneyline (-250 at BET99)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-170 at BET99)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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