The UFC returns to Canada as Bell Centre hosts UFC 315 on Saturday night. The main card features a flyweight bout between No. 1-ranked contender Alexa Grasso and No. 5-ranked Natalia Silva.
UFC odds list Silva as a large favorite at -245, while Grasso is priced at +190. Here are my Grasso vs. Silva predictions and free betting picks for tonight from Montreal.
Grasso vs Silva prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Silva moneyline (-245 at BET99)
- My best bet: Silva by decision (-145 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Alexa Grasso looks to re-enter the title conversation by getting back into the win column Saturday. She won the belt with a massive upset victory over Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 285.
The two have rematched twice since then, with the second fight ending in a draw and the third ending with a dominant unanimous decision victory for Shevchenko. Despite the recent slide, there is no denying that Grasso remains one of the elite talents at 125 pounds, and she has typically only lost to the best the division has to offer.
That said, the ceiling of Natalia Silva has yet to be determined. Her five professional losses are misleading, given that they all occurred while she was figuring the sport out on the regional circuit.
Silva currently rides a 12-fight win streak, with six of those wins coming since her UFC debut in 2022. She possesses some impressive wins during this stretch, including victories over Jasmine Jasudavicius, Viviane Araujo and Jessica Andrade.
The last of those wins, against Andrade, was particularly impressive. Silva dominated Andrade on the feet, winning all three rounds as she systematically picked her apart.
A similar outcome is likely in store at UFC 315. Oddsmakers agree, given that Silva is a large favorite.
Best bet analysis
Instead of laying -250 on the moneyline, I see more value in Silva’s decision prop at -145. Each of her past three wins has come by decision, a product of her ability to control the striking exchanges.
That approach could work once again in this bout against Grasso, who, while an elite fighter, has not been as dominant as Silva on her feet. Since joining the UFC, Silva has landed more strikes per minute than Grasso, and at a higher accuracy.
Silva’s defense has also been stronger, as she has absorbed fewer strikes per minute. She also boasts a 91% takedown defense rate, although the majority of this bout figures to remain standing.
Grasso has never been knocked out in 21 professional MMA bouts, reinforcing that Silva’s most likely path to victory is by decision.
Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Grasso | Silva |
| To win outright | +200 | -260 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +1900 | +725 |
| To win by decision | +255 | -150 |
| To win by submission | +1900 | +950 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 5-10.
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Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva tale of the tape
| Grasso | Silva | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 28 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-4 |
| Flyweight | Weight Class | Flyweight |
| 66 inches | Reach | 65 inches |
| 16-4-1 | Record | 18-5-1 |
| 4 | Wins by KO | 5 |
| 2 | Wins by submission | 7 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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