UFC 311: Kevin Holland vs Reinier de Ridder Predictions, Picks & Odds

UFC 311's main card opener features a middleweight bout between unranked contenders Kevin Holland and Reinier de Ridder.

Current UFC odds have de Ridder listed as a slight betting favorite at -125 via BET99, while Holland returns at +105. Here are my free UFC 311: Holland vs. de Ridder predictions for tonight’s PPV at the Intuit Dome.

Holland vs de Ridder prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  de Ridder moneyline (-125 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  de Ridder by submission (+270 at BET99)

Fight analysis

The steam is on Reinier de Ridder, who opened as the underdog before being flipped to the betting favorite. 

A former ONE champion, de Ridder posted a 17-2 professional record before making his UFC debut a few months ago against Gerald Meerschaert. The Dutch grappler passed with flying colors, prevailing with a submission victory in the third round. The main concern with de Ridder’s performance was his stamina, but that problem is minimized in this fight against Kevin Holland.

While Holland is a fun fighter, his chaotic style leads to finishes (both for and against). Eight of his past 11 fights have ended inside the distance, including his submission loss to Khamzat Chimaev.

de Ridder is obviously no Khamzat, but 13 of his 18 professional wins have come by submission.

Best best analysis

The longshot play here is clearly the KO/TKO prop, but that number is not wide enough for my liking. Holland will prefer to stay on his feet against de Ridder, who will enter this fight with a grappling game plan.

That leaves the submission and decision props for de Ridder, and +295 is too long for me to pass up between those two options. De Ridder is a tremendous grappler with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and Holland’s takedown defense against middleweights has been a weakness.

Roman Dolidze, Kyle Daukaus, Marvin Vettori, and Derek Brunson combined for 19 takedowns on 35 attempts against Holland. If de Ridder gets him down as well, then I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulls off the submission victory, which is why the odds keep moving in his direction.

I don’t trust Holland’s takedown defense against heavier guys, and with the fight listed at -200 to not go the distance, my concerns about de Ridder’s questionable stamina are minimized.

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Kevin Holland vs Reinier de Ridder odds

Method of Victory	Holland	de Ridder
To win outright	+105	-125
To win by KO/TKO	+230	+1300
To win by decision	+525	+240
To win by submission	+950	+270
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 1-18.

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Kevin Holland vs Reinier de Ridder tale of the tape

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