UFC 306: Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Ode Osbourne Odds, Picks & Predictions

Rolando Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne is a flyweight fight that will be featured at UFC 306 this evening.

Rodriguez looks to show out on Mexican Independence Day weekend by winning his second fight in a row, and he’ll have to diffuse the explosive Osbourne in order to do it.

UFC odds have Rodriguez coming in at -155, while Osbourne is currently listed as a +135 underdog. Here are my best free UFC 306: Rodriguez vs. Osbourne predictions from The Sphere in Las Vegas.

Rodriguez vs Osbourne prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Rodriguez moneyline (-155 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Rodriguez to win by submission or points (+115 at BET99)

Fight analysis

When I first looked at this fight, I thought two things. First, I was in shock that this bout is on the main card of a pay-per-view, and secondly, that this fight is practically a toss-up.

Ode Osbourne has lost his last two fights primarily due to his failure to defend takedowns, with his striking stifled as he was wrestled into defeat. He tends to get finished because he has a bad chin and offers absolutely nothing by way of submission defense when he hits the ground.

Rolando Rodriguez should have this fight in the bag, and his edge lies in the fact that striking is Osbourne's only significant strength. Once the fight hits the ground or Rodriguez gets a chance to work in his BJJ, Osbourne will have no answer for him. 

Although both have significant weaknesses, Osbourne's inability to defend submissions stands out as the most critical factor, and one that Rodriguez should be able to exploit. 

Best best analysis

Osbourne has lost four of his last seven fights after moving down to the flyweight division, and while he remains a big fighter in the division, that advantage isn’t paying off for him. His damage resistance is low, his submission defense remains weak, and he has been shut down by decent grapplers who can negate his striking by disrupting his rhythm. 

This is a risky but winnable fight for Rodriguez. My best bet is on a double chance that he gets a win by submission or decision.

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Ode Osbourne odds

Method of Victory	Rodriguez	Osbourne
To win outright	-155	+135
To win by KO/TKO	+405	+305
To win by decision	+290	+405
To win by submission	+300	+2,100
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 9-14.

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Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Ode Osbourne tale of the tape

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