UFC 300 Pereira vs Hill Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Belt Stays Put in Light Heavyweight Clash

Alex Pereira and Jamahal Hill are set for a slugfest in UFC 300's main event as the pair battle for the light heavyweight belt. See where our UFC picks think your best bet is as we break down the headliner for this historic event.

Apr 13, 2024 • 20:15 ET • 4 min read
Alex Pereira UFC
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill is the headline event for tonight's incredible card of UFC 300 betting. 

Pereira will make his first defense of the light heavyweight championship, and he'll face the former champ in Hill, who relinquished the title due to an injury last year. This should be an exciting clash between a pair of striking specialists whose resumes are filled with highlight-reel knockouts.

UFC odds have Pereira as a slim -140 favorite, with Hill coming back at +115. Here are my best free UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill predictions from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill fight odds

Method of Victory Pereira Hill
To win outright -140 +115
To win by KO/TKO +125 +195
To win by points +525 +750
To win by submission +1,900 +1,500
Draw +2,500 +2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on 4-13-2024.

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Pereira vs Hill picks

Fight prediction: Pereira ML

I don't see Pereira losing until his chin goes, his speed declines, or he faces a high-end grappler. Luckily for him, there aren't many contenders with strong wrestling or grappling in this division and Hill isn't one of them. As for his speed and chin, Pereira proved that both of those were intact when he knocked out Jiri Prochazka in the second round last November to claim the title. 

Hill is also a former champ and he's an extremely dangerous striker as well, boasting a similar frame and knockout power of his own. However, the best striker Hill has faced was probably a 38-year-old Thiago Santos coming off double knee surgery. Meanwhile, Pereira has gone up against Israel Adesanya (twice), Jan Blachowicz, Sean Strickland, and Prochazka, who all have better striking than a washed Santos.

In addition, Hill doesn't do a good job of checking leg kicks, which is one of Pereira's best weapons and something he uses to set up his heavy hands. 

Hill is also just nine months removed from tearing his Achilles tendon, and it's tough to know what version of him we'll get coming off an injury like that. Not only could he still be feeling the effects of structural damage, but his fitness might not be anywhere near peak form since he already had a reputation for ballooning out of shape in between camps.

With a line as close as this, questions about Hill's health and ability to check kicks are enough for me to back the current champ. 

Prediction: Pereira moneyline (-130 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Pereira by knockout

There's a reason that the "Fight not to go the distance" prop is set -350 for this bout. Both of these guys are knockout specialists who prefer to stand and strike, so it's hard to imagine this going the full 25 minutes.

Four of Pereira's six wins in the UFC have come by knockout, and the two that didn't were 15 minutes bouts where his opponents stalled the action with wrestling tactics. Hill is a southpaw who often keeps his right hand low in the pocket, which is bad news against Pereira, who has the most devastating left hook in MMA.

Expect Pereira to reduce Hill's mobility with leg kicks and make him a stationary target before unloading on him with damaging shots. 

Pick: Pereira by KO/TKO (+135 at Bet99)

Pereira vs Hill betting preview

A former two-division kickboxing champion in Glory, Pereira has now claimed gold in two divisions in the UFC as well. He was fast-tracked to a middleweight title shot due to his kickboxing accolades and rivalry with Israel Adesanya, but proved that he deserved the opportunity by dethroning Adesanya in 2022. 

While he lost that belt in a rematch against Adesanya last April, he moved up to 205 pounds, where he defeated former champs Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka to claim the vacant title at light heavyweight. With a background as an elite kickboxer, it's no surprise that "Paotan" is a highly refined striker and he combines that excellent technique with death-touch knockout power.

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Hill chose to vacate the belt last July after rupturing his Achilles tendon during International Fight Week. It was a brutal blow for a rising star that had just claimed the 205-pound title after a dominant decision victory against Glover Teixeira. Hill has just one loss in his MMA career, and he has reeled off four-straight wins since, claiming a performance bonus in each bout.

The 32-year-old is a long and rangy fighter with a diverse striking arsenal and explosive power. Five of his seven wins in the octagon have come by way of knockout, and he had another KO victory later ruled a No Contest after testing positive for marijuana.

Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill tale of the tape

Pereira   Hill
36 Age 32
6-feet-4 Height 6-feet-4
204 lbs Weight 204 lbs
79 inches Reach 79 inches
9-2-0 Record 12-1-0

Not intended for use in MA.
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