UFC 282 Pimblett vs Gordon Picks and Predictions: Baddy Comes Out Swinging

"Paddy the Baddy" is one of the fastest-rising stars in the UFC and is heavily favored to pick up the win over Jared Gordon. With Pimblett's aggressive style playing a factor, our UFC betting picks don't expect this fight to go the distance.

Last Updated: Dec 10, 2022 8:26 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Paddy Pimblett UFC
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon is on the main card for UFC 282 betting on Saturday night from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. 

This will be an important fight for Paddy "The Baddy," who is viewed as one of the fastest-rising stars in the sport but has yet to crack the lightweight rankings. UFC betting odds opened with Pimblett as a -190 favorite, and money has come in on the charismatic Liverpudlian, who now sits at -260, with the veteran Gordon coming back at +190.

Here are my best free Pimblett vs. Gordon picks and predictions for UFC 282 on December 10.

Pimblett vs Gordon fight odds

Pimblett vs Gordon method of victory odds

Method of Victory Paddy Pimblett Jared Gordon
To win by KO/TKO +340 +650
To win by Points +270 +500
To win by Submission +230 +1,300
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on December 7, 2022.

Pimblett vs Gordon picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Pimblett vs Gordon betting preview

Paddy "The Baddy" Pimblett has quickly become one of the biggest names in the UFC despite being unranked and having just three fights in the promotion.

That said, he has gone 3-0 in the octagon, with all three of those victories earning a Performance of the Night bonus. In his most recent bout, he submitted Jordan Leavitt in the second round after an opening round where he was taken down three times but constantly threatened with submission attempts.

The 27-year-old is a former featherweight champion at Cage Warriors and is known for his charismatic personality and all-action style. Pimblett has high-end grappling ability but is more than willing to mix it up on his feet with pressure and aggressive striking.

Jared "Flash" Gordon is fresh off a dominant decision win against Leonard Santos in August, where he had a 116-36 edge in significant strikes. That allowed him to bounce back from a submission loss to Grant Dawson earlier this year.

Gordon is 7-4 in the UFC, with his last six victories coming by points. The 34-year-old is a well-rounded fighter who can maintain a good pace with his crisp boxing and chain wrestling.

Pimblett vs Gordon tale of the tape

Paddy Pimblett   Jared Gordon
27 Age 34
5-foot-10 Height 5-foot-9
156 lbs Weight 155.5 lbs
73 inches Reach 68 inches
19-3-0 (6 KO) Record 19-5-0 (6 KO)

Pimblett vs Gordon UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

Pimblett's biggest weakness has been his striking defense and tendency to leave his chin in the air, but Gordon doesn't have the power to make him pay for that.

Pimblett explodes in bursts with his punches and throws kicks with plenty of speed as well, and that should help him at range against Gordon, who has a five-inch reach disadvantage. When Gordon closes the distance, Paddy will be able to use his grappling and get this fight where he wants it.

The longer this fight goes, the better Gordon's chances are of winning, but Paddy's speed, athleticism, and grappling should get him an early victory. 

Prediction: Pimblett moneyline (-250 at FanDuel)

Gordon likes to use his offensive wrestling and has shown a willingness to engage with high-end grapplers on the mat despite being vulnerable in that area.

Meanwhile, Pimblett is at his best on the mat, and even in his last fight against another grappling specialist in Leavitt, Pimblett was levels better when it came to submissions. 

Pimblett's aggressive style results in plenty of finishes, and his last six wins have all come inside the distance (two by knockout and four by submission). With Gordon getting finished in all four of his UFC defeats, back the Baddy to win by way of stoppage. 

Pick: Pimblett inside the distance (-110 at bet365)

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