Wimbledon Men's Semifinal Odds & Predictions: Alcaraz Comes Out on Top Against Familiar Foe

We’ve reached the semifinal stage of the 2024 Wimbledon Men's singles side of the tourney, with a match featuring two players quite familiar with one another. 

No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz is the heavy Wimbledon odds favorite when he meets No. 5 Daniil Medvedev in a rematch of last year's Wimbledon semifinal.  

Join me as I share my reasoning as to why Alcaraz will have the upper hand in this matchup with my free betting picks for Friday, July 12

Wimbledon Men's Semifinal picks and predictions

• Prediction: Alcaraz ML (-320 at FanDuel)
• Best bet: Under 38.5 games (-118 at FanDuel)

Click on each prediction to read full analysis.

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Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on July 11, 2024.

Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz match prediction

Spain’s Carlos Alcaraz is hoping to make history as the seventh man to successfully defend his Wimbledon title.

Alcaraz hasn’t been perfect during this fortnight, but he’s stepped on the gas when he’s needed to. Frances Tiafoe had a 2-1 set lead before Alcaraz dropped “Big Foe” in five while American Tommy Paul took a one-set lead with an early break in the second set before Alcaraz clocked Paul in four.

Alcaraz has defeated Daniil Medvedev in four of their previous six meetings without dropping a set in each victory. Alcaraz is one of the few players on tour unfazed by the Russian’s big serve. The Spaniard's ability to prolong rallies and hit winners from anywhere on the court frustrates Medvedev, and that will likely be the case on Friday.

Medvedev has survived some tough battles during this fortnight, but Friday’s bout with Alcaraz will be his last. Med’s return game hasn’t been sharp here (44% break points won) and the inconsistency of his service game (26 double faults this event) will open the door for one of the best returners in the game to fluster, and ultimately end, Medvedev’s title hopes. 

Prediction: Alcaraz moneyline (-320 at FanDuel)

Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz best bet

I like Alcaraz to win, but –320 is far too juicy for my taste.

Medvedev is like a wall. His movement is exceptional and his deep, penetrating groundies from both wings typically frustrate opponents. 

Medvedev is known as the Octopus because opponents have difficulties passing the 6-foot-5 Russian. Alcaraz is one of those rare exceptions, and his ability to go from defense to attack in the blink of an eye has frustrated Medvedev in the past, and that frustration has never been more apparent than in their last two meetings.

That’s why their three meetings in Grand Slam events have all gone Under 39.5 games. Med likes to control the pace of the game and dictate points with his big serve. Alcaraz doesn’t fear the Medvedev serve in the least as the Spaniard broke three times in their last meeting at Indian Wells and twice indoors at the 2023 ATP Tour finals in Turin.

We’ll see some tightly contested games with the set scores determined by a service break or two. The two gladiators have never gone the distance against each other in any of their previous Grand Slam clashes or best-of-three encounters. Their one Grand Slam bout lasting more than three sets ended in four and Under 39.5 games, and Friday’s clash will end Under 39.5 games as well. 

Best bet: Under 39.5 games (-118 at FanDuel)

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